中非合作应对东非洪灾和儿童疟疾负担的优先事项：三十年回顾性分析。

Public health priorities for Sino-Africa cooperation in Eastern Africa in context of flooding and malaria burden in Children: a tridecadal retrospective analysis.

机构信息

Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University and Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.

East African Center for Disaster Health and Humanitarian Research, Kampala, Uganda.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2023 Jul 11;23(1):1331. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16220-7.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-16220-7

PMID:37434112

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10337152/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a major public health burden to children under five, especially in Eastern Africa (E.A), -a region that is also witnessing the increasing occurrence of floods and extreme climate change. The present study, therefore, explored the trends in floods, as well as the association of their occurrence and duration with the malaria incidence in children < 5 years in five E.A partner countries of Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), including Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Tanzania between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of data retrieved from two global sources was performed: the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) between 1990 and 2019. Using SPSS 20.0, a correlation was determined based on ρ= -1 to + 1, as well as the statistical significance of P = < 0.05. Time plots of trends in flooding and malaria incidence were generated in 3 different decades using R version 4.0.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the occurrence and duration of floods among the five E.A partner countries of FOCAC increased and showed an upward trend. On the contrary, however, this had an inverse and negative, as well as a weak correlation on the malaria incidence in children under five years. Only Kenya, among the five countries, showed a perfect negative correction of malaria incidence in children under five with flood occurrence (ρ = -0.586**, P-value = 0.001) and duration (ρ = -0.657**, P-value = < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the need for further research to comprehensively explore how different climate extreme events, which oftentimes complement floods, might be influencing the risk of malaria in children under five in five E.A malaria-endemic partner countries of FOCAC. Similarly, it ought to consider investigating the influence of other attributes apart from flood occurrence and duration, which also compound floods like displacement, malnutrition, and water, sanitation and hygiene on the risk and distribution of malaria and other climate-sensitive diseases.

摘要

背景

疟疾仍然是五岁以下儿童的主要公共卫生负担，尤其是在东非（E.A），该地区也见证了洪水和极端气候变化的日益发生。因此，本研究探讨了洪水的趋势，以及它们的发生和持续时间与五个东非合作论坛（FOCAC）伙伴国家（埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、索马里、苏丹和坦桑尼亚）五岁以下儿童疟疾发病率之间的关联，时间跨度为 1990 年至 2019 年。

方法

对从两个全球来源检索到的数据进行了回顾性分析：1990 年至 2019 年期间的紧急事件数据库（EM-DAT）和全球疾病负担研究（GBD）。使用 SPSS 20.0，根据 ρ= -1 到 + 1 确定相关性，并确定 P 值 < 0.05 的统计显著性。使用 R 版本 4.0 在三个不同的十年中生成洪水和疟疾发病率趋势的时间图。

结果

1990 年至 2019 年期间，五个东非 FOCAC 伙伴国家的洪水发生和持续时间增加，呈上升趋势。然而，相反的是，这对五岁以下儿童的疟疾发病率产生了反向和负向，以及微弱的相关性。在五个国家中，只有肯尼亚显示出与洪水发生（ρ= -0.586**，P 值= 0.001）和持续时间（ρ= -0.657**，P 值 < 0.0001）呈完美负相关的五岁以下儿童疟疾发病率的校正。

结论

本研究强调需要进一步研究，以全面探讨不同的气候极端事件（洪水经常与之并存）如何影响五个东非疟疾流行伙伴国家五岁以下儿童的疟疾风险。同样，它应该考虑调查除洪水发生和持续时间以外的其他属性的影响，这些属性也会加剧洪水，如流离失所、营养不良以及水、环境卫生和个人卫生对疟疾和其他气候敏感疾病的风险和分布的影响。