Malaria positivity rate trend analysis at water resources development project of Wonji Sugar Estate Oromia, Ethiopia.

Evidence on the trends of the proportion of malaria infections detected by routine passive case detection at health facilities is important for public health decision making especially in areas moving towards elimination. The objective was to assess nine years of trends on clinical malaria infections detected at health facility and its associated climate factors, in the water resource development set up of Wonji sugar estate, Oromia, Ethiopia. Retrospective data were collected from malaria-suspected patient recording logbook at Wonji sugar factory's primary hospital. Monthly average meteorological data were obtained from the estate meteorological station. Data were collected from April through June 2018 and January 2022. The data were analyzed using Stata version 16.0 software for Chi-square and regression analysis. Over the last nine years, 34,388 cases were legible for analysis with complete data. Of these, 11.75% (4039/34388) were positive for clinical malaria. Plasmodium vivax test positivity was the highest proportion (8.2%, n = 2820) followed by Plasmodium falciparum (3.48%, n = 1197) and mixed infections (P. falciparum and P. vivax, 0.06%, n = 21). The odds of being positive for malaria was highest in males (AOR = 1.46; 95%CI = 1.36-1.52; P < 0.001) compared to females and in older individuals of above 15 years old (AOR = 4.55, 95%CI = 4.01-5.17, P < 0.001) followed by school-aged children (5-15 years old) (AOR = 2.16; 95%CI = 1.88-2.49, P < 0.001). There was no significant variation in the proportion of malaria-positive cases in the dry and wet seasons (P = 0.059). Malaria test positivity rates were associated with average monthly rainfall (AdjIRR = 1.00; 95%CI = 1.00-1.001, P < 0.001) while negatively associated with average monthly minim temperature (adjIRR = 0.94; 95%CI = 0.94-0.95; P < 0.001) and average monthly relative humidity (adjIRR = 0.99, 95%CI = 0.99-1.00, P = 0.023). There was year-round malaria transmission, adults especially males and school children frequently tested malaria positive. Hence, alternative vector management tools like larval source management have to be deployed besides ITNs and IRS in such water development areas to achieve the malaria elimination goal.