Anamaghi Sara, Behboudian Massoud, Mahjouri Najmeh, Kerachian Reza
Faculty of Civil Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden; School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 1;902:165986. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165986. Epub 2023 Aug 2.
This paper proposes a new framework for evaluating water and environmental resources carrying capacity (WERCC) based on the concept of resilience under uncertainty. First, several quantitative and qualitative criteria based on the seven principles of resilience and the Pressure-Support-State (PSS) framework are defined to incorporate the positive and negative impacts of human interventions and natural factors on water resources and the environment. The resilience principles include redundancy and diversity, managing connectivity, managing slow variables and their feedbacks, fostering complex adaptive system (CAS) thinking, encouraging learning, broadening participation, and promoting polycentric governance. After evaluating the values of the criteria and sub-criteria using a two-point evidential reasoning (TPER) approach and considering the existing uncertainties, the monthly time series of WERCC with uncertainty bands are calculated. The proposed methodology is then used to evaluate the WERCC in the Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran for a given historical period (1991-2012), and the period of 2020 to 2049 under different climate change scenarios. The results of this analysis demonstrate the inadequacy of the WERCC during the historical period and indicate that the continuation of the existing trend (base scenario, MSC) will cause many environmental issues. Hence, several water and environmental resources management (WERM) scenarios are proposed to enhance the WERCC. These scenarios are evaluated using a multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making method to identify the preferable WERM scenario (MSC). This scenario, which encompasses various projects (e.g., development and enhancement of water transfer networks and upgrading cultivation methods), improves the average value of the WERCC by 26 %. The results of the proposed methodology are compared with those of a traditional decision-making method, which considers three criteria of average WERCC, the pressure-support index, and the implementation cost. The results demonstrate that the multi-agent-multi-criteria decision-making approach provides a more cost-effective management scenario, with 30 % less cost, leading to only 3 % less carrying capacity.
本文基于不确定性下的恢复力概念，提出了一种评估水资源与环境承载力（WERCC）的新框架。首先，基于恢复力的七条原则和压力-支撑-状态（PSS）框架，定义了若干定量和定性标准，以纳入人类干预和自然因素对水资源与环境的正负影响。恢复力原则包括冗余与多样性、管理连通性、管理慢变量及其反馈、培养复杂适应系统（CAS）思维、鼓励学习、扩大参与以及促进多中心治理。在使用两点证据推理（TPER）方法评估标准和子标准的值并考虑现有不确定性之后，计算出带有不确定性区间的WERCC月度时间序列。然后，所提出的方法被用于评估伊朗扎里内赫鲁德河流域在给定历史时期（1991 - 2012年）以及不同气候变化情景下2020年至2049年的WERCC。该分析结果表明历史时期WERCC不足，并表明现有趋势（基础情景，MSC）的持续将导致许多环境问题。因此，提出了若干水资源与环境资源管理（WERM）情景以增强WERCC。使用多智能体多标准决策方法对这些情景进行评估，以确定更优的WERM情景（MSC）。该情景涵盖各种项目（例如，开发和增强输水网络以及升级种植方法），使WERCC的平均值提高了26%。将所提出方法的结果与传统决策方法的结果进行比较，传统决策方法考虑平均WERCC、压力-支撑指数和实施成本这三个标准。结果表明，多智能体多标准决策方法提供了一种成本效益更高的管理情景，成本降低了30%，而承载力仅降低了3%。
