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回忆遥远过去的妊娠和哺乳期的居住史和饮食习惯:基于问卷调查的宫内和生命早期暴露人群辐射剂量的可靠性。

Recall of residential history and dietary habits during pregnancy and lactation in the distant past: reliability of questionnaire-based radiation doses for persons exposed in utero and early life.

机构信息

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, 9609 Medical Center Drive, Room 7E548 MSC 9778, Bethesda, MD, 20892-9778, USA.

United Institute of Informatics Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus.

出版信息

Radiat Environ Biophys. 2023 Nov;62(4):465-481. doi: 10.1007/s00411-023-01040-5. Epub 2023 Aug 4.

Abstract

This study evaluates the reliability of information obtained by standardized questionnaires used in by personal interviews for estimation of radiation thyroid doses of 1065 individuals in the Belarusian cohort of individuals who were exposed in utero and early life following the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. Data from two interviews conducted in 2012-2017 and in 2018-2022 with mothers, who were pregnant or gave birth shortly after the Chernobyl accident, were analysed. The most reliable answers dealt with various attributes related to residential history. In contrast, the reliability of answers regarding consumption rates of milk from privately owned cows or trade network was moderate, while the agreement in responses for consumption of milk products and leafy vegetables was fair. Information from the two interviews was used to calculate thyroid doses received by the cohort members. Specifically, 'model-based' thyroid doses due to I were estimated using input data on individual residential history and food consumption reported during the personal interviews and ecological data (I ground deposition in the corresponding settlements). In addition, for a subset of cohort subjects (n = 205) whose mothers were measured for I thyroid activity, 'measurement-based' thyroid doses were calculated by adjusting the model-based dose using a scaling factor that is defined as the ratio of measured I thyroid activity to model-based I thyroid activity calculated for the date of measurement. A moderate agreement was observed for total (prenatal and postnatal) model-based thyroid doses due to I intake, the arithmetic mean ± standard deviation for the Jaccard similarity coefficient ([Formula: see text]) was 0.45 ± 0.34 (median = 0.39), while measurement-based doses showed a much better agreement with a [Formula: see text] of 0.78 ± 0.29 (median = 0.93). For model-based thyroid doses from external irradiation and from ingestion of Cs and Cs, [Formula: see text] was 0.82 ± 0.23 (median = 0.90) and 0.84 ± 0.24 (median = 0.96), respectively. Measurement-based doses due to ingestion of radiocaesium isotopes resulted in an almost perfect agreement, [Formula: see text] was 0.91 ± 0.19 (median = 1.0). The present findings suggest that long-term memory recall can be reliable, if a person is asked about unique or important life events, such as pregnancy and childbirth occurring around the time of a nuclear reactor accident. However, the substantial difference (more than 10 times) observed for model-bases doses calculated using the two questionnaires represents an important source of human factor uncertainties that needs to be considered in any dose response analyses. Other lessons learned from this study are that (i) individual measurements of radionuclides in the human body are the most valuable source of information for estimating radiation doses, and (ii) whenever a radiation accident occurs, a sample of affected people should be asked to keep a diary, if at all possible.

摘要

本研究评估了通过个人访谈中使用的标准化问卷获得的信息的可靠性,这些信息用于估计 1986 年 4 月切尔诺贝利事故后在子宫内和生命早期暴露的 1065 名白俄罗斯队列个体的甲状腺辐射剂量。分析了在 2012-2017 年和 2018-2022 年期间对母亲进行的两次访谈的数据,这些母亲在切尔诺贝利事故后怀孕或分娩。最可靠的答案涉及与居住史有关的各种属性。相比之下,关于私人奶牛或贸易网络牛奶消费率的答案的可靠性为中等,而关于乳制品和绿叶蔬菜消费的答案的一致性为一般。两次访谈的信息用于计算队列成员接受的甲状腺剂量。具体来说,使用个人访谈期间报告的个体居住史和食物消费的输入数据以及生态数据(相应定居点的 I 地面沉积),使用“基于模型”的方法估算 I 引起的甲状腺剂量。此外,对于队列中一部分(n=205)母亲的 I 甲状腺活性进行了测量的个体,通过调整模型计算的甲状腺剂量来计算“基于测量”的甲状腺剂量基于测量的 I 甲状腺活性的缩放因子,该因子定义为测量的 I 甲状腺活性与为测量日期计算的基于模型的 I 甲状腺活性之比。对于 I 摄入引起的总(产前和产后)基于模型的甲状腺剂量,观察到中等程度的一致性,Jaccard 相似系数([Formula: see text])的算术平均值±标准偏差为 0.45±0.34(中位数=0.39),而基于测量的剂量则显示出更好的一致性,[Formula: see text]为 0.78±0.29(中位数=0.93)。对于来自外部照射和摄入 Cs 和 Cs 的基于模型的甲状腺剂量,[Formula: see text]分别为 0.82±0.23(中位数=0.90)和 0.84±0.24(中位数=0.96)。摄入放射性铯同位素引起的基于测量的甲状腺剂量几乎完全一致,[Formula: see text]为 0.91±0.19(中位数=1.0)。本研究结果表明,如果要求一个人回忆与核反应堆事故发生时相关的独特或重要的生活事件(如怀孕和分娩),那么长期记忆的回忆可能是可靠的。然而,使用两个问卷计算的基于模型的剂量之间存在显著差异(超过 10 倍),这是人类因素不确定性的重要来源,在任何剂量反应分析中都需要考虑。本研究还得出其他结论,即(i)人体中放射性核素的个体测量是估计辐射剂量最有价值的信息来源,以及(ii)每当发生辐射事故时,如果可能,应要求受影响的人群中的一个样本保留日记。

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