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美国原油价格与可持续投资的动态风险关联:基于 DCC-GARCH 的证据。

Dynamic risk connectedness of crude oil price and sustainable investment in the United States: evidence from DCC-GARCH.

机构信息

Department of Management & Information Systems, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul, Turkey.

Economics and Finance Application and Research Center, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul, Turkey.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Sep;30(41):94976-94987. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29008-4. Epub 2023 Aug 5.

Abstract

Sustainable investment is widely regarded as an important market-based approach to achieving inclusive green growth. To achieve the inclusive green growth objective, companies providing sustainable products must be profitable enough to attract private capital. Oil price changes can however affect the profitability of such companies. This study assesses volatility transmission between crude oil prices and sustainable investment in the USA. Using the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) method, daily data from September 28, 2012, to October 19, 2022, is analyzed. There are several key findings from this analysis. The risk connectedness of crude oil and sustainable investment is found to vary with time. Results further show that the risk connectedness increases in periods of important economic and geopolitical events. The greatest risk connectedness of crude oil and sustainable investment is observed during the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Moreover, the result shows that crude oil is the main risk transmitter, whereas, both the energy efficiency and pollution mitigation indices (i.e., sustainable investment) are risk receivers, and crude oil is constantly dominating sustainable investment. The study findings provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers alike.

摘要

可持续投资被广泛认为是实现包容性绿色增长的重要市场手段。为了实现包容性绿色增长的目标,提供可持续产品的公司必须有足够的盈利能力来吸引私人资本。然而,石油价格的变化会影响此类公司的盈利能力。本研究评估了美国原油价格与可持续投资之间的波动传递。使用动态条件相关-广义自回归条件异方差(DCC-GARCH)方法,分析了 2012 年 9 月 28 日至 2022 年 10 月 19 日的每日数据。该分析有几个关键发现。发现原油和可持续投资的风险关联随时间而变化。结果进一步表明,在重要的经济和地缘政治事件期间,风险关联度增加。在冠状病毒病(COVID-19)爆发期间,观察到原油和可持续投资之间最大的风险关联。此外,结果表明,原油是主要的风险传递者,而能源效率和污染缓解指数(即可持续投资)是风险接收者,且原油一直主导着可持续投资。研究结果为投资者和政策制定者提供了有价值的见解。

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