School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China.
Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing, 100083, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Aug;29(36):54796-54812. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19522-2. Epub 2022 Mar 19.
To achieve carbon neutrality and carbon reduction goals, China needs to consider industrial structure and trade. This study aims to test the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis at the industry level in China and study the different impact of Sino-US trade in intermediate goods and trade in final goods on China's environment. To do so, we used the annual data of China's 25 sectors in 1990-2015 and classified 25 sectors into three main industries. Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology framework, we investigated the validity of EKC hypothesis and the driving factors of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The results show that (1) EKC hypothesis is verified for the country and the tertiary industry. (2) Compared with the primary industry and the secondary industry, the economic growth of the tertiary industry brings less GHG emissions. (3) Intermediate goods exported to all sectors in the USA will increase GHG emissions in the country and the three main industries, but final goods exported to consumers in the USA will reduce GHG emissions except the tertiary industry. From our results, the EKC hypothesis is a suitable model for environmental policy in tertiary industry, but it does not apply to the primary industry and the secondary industry. Environmental policy in the primary industry and the secondary industry needs to focus on reducing energy intensity. In the case of exports to the USA, intermediate goods pollute the environment, while final improve the environment. Thus, China needs to increase controls on exports of intermediate goods with low added value and high pollution and gradually shift to the production of environmentally friendly final goods.
为实现碳达峰碳中和目标，中国需要考虑产业结构和贸易问题。本研究旨在检验环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说在中国产业层面的有效性，并研究中美中间品和最终品贸易对中国环境的不同影响。为此，我们使用了中国 1990-2015 年 25 个部门的年度数据，并将 25 个部门分为三大类。基于人口、财富和技术的随机影响回归框架，我们调查了 EKC 假说的有效性和温室气体（GHG）排放的驱动因素。结果表明：（1）EKC 假说在中国和第三产业中得到验证。（2）与第一产业和第二产业相比，第三产业的经济增长带来的温室气体排放量较少。（3）出口到美国所有部门的中间品将增加中国和三大产业的温室气体排放，但出口到美国消费者的最终品除第三产业外，将减少温室气体排放。根据我们的研究结果，EKC 假说适用于第三产业的环境政策，但不适用于第一产业和第二产业。第一产业和第二产业的环境政策需要注重降低能源强度。在对美国出口的情况下，中间品污染环境，而最终品改善环境。因此，中国需要加强对低附加值、高污染中间品出口的控制，逐步转向生产环保型最终品。
