Stephens Natalie, Béen Frederic, Savic Dragan
Department of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter EX4 4PY, United Kingdom.
KWR Water Research Institute, Groningeghaven 7, 430 BB Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.
ACS ES T Water. 2022 Jun 6;2(11):2158-2166. doi: 10.1021/acsestwater.2c00071. eCollection 2022 Nov 11.
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is increasingly being recognized as a powerful tool for detecting and monitoring SARS-CoV-2 trends at a population level. This study looked to extend the use of WBE to explore the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have been used in response to COVID-19 and compare the results to the effect of such interventions on COVID-19 hospitalizations. A data-driven approach demonstrated that trends of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater, from Amsterdam and Utrecht (The Netherlands), precede hospitalizations by at least 3-9 days. Additionally, the effect of NPIs can be seen in wastewater and hospitalizations after 20 and 24 days, respectively. Changepoint analysis indicated that the closure of schools and universities significantly reduced the level of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and COVID-19 hospitalizations. Regression modeling suggested the stay-at-home policy is an effective intervention for reducing the level of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater, whereas the closure of workplaces significantly reduced hospitalizations in both Dutch cities. This study demonstrates how WBE can be used to inform public health decisions and anticipate future strain on healthcare facilities in major cities but also indicates a need for higher temporal resolution of wastewater sampling.
基于废水的流行病学（WBE）日益被视为在人群层面检测和监测新冠病毒（SARS-CoV-2）趋势的有力工具。本研究旨在扩展WBE的应用，以探究为应对新冠疫情而采取的非药物干预措施（NPIs）的有效性，并将结果与这些干预措施对新冠住院情况的影响进行比较。一种数据驱动的方法表明，来自荷兰阿姆斯特丹和乌得勒支的废水中新冠病毒RNA的趋势比住院情况提前至少3 - 9天出现。此外，非药物干预措施的效果分别在20天和24天后在废水和住院情况中显现出来。变点分析表明，学校和大学的关闭显著降低了废水中新冠病毒RNA的水平以及新冠住院人数。回归模型表明，居家政策是降低废水中新冠病毒RNA水平的有效干预措施，而工作场所的关闭显著降低了荷兰这两个城市的住院人数。本研究展示了WBE如何用于为公共卫生决策提供信息并预测大城市医疗设施未来的压力，但也表明需要提高废水采样的时间分辨率。
