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基于NetLogo的职业健康与安全管理因果模型的系统动力学仿真

System dynamics simulation of occupational health and safety management causal model based on NetLogo.

作者信息

Cao Zhonghong, Zhu Junjie, Tang Binbin, Chen Tao

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, Hunan University of Science and Engineering, Yongzhou 425199, Hunan, PR China.

School of Accounting, Wuhan Qingchuan University, Wuhan 430204, Hubei, PR China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2023 Jul 27;9(8):e18752. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18752. eCollection 2023 Aug.

Abstract

The occupational health and safety management factors of construction enterprises are critical influencing factors in their training management, and their causal principles are topics that warrant profound exploration. Drawing upon the conventional five factors, this study initially posited and authenticated a causal model among them, subsequently employing system dynamics on the NetLogo platform to dynamically simulate the model, and ultimately scrutinizing the interrelations and dynamic influence degree among the factors. The results show that the direct causes of management factors include human factors (weight coefficient of 0.583) and method factors (weight coefficient of 0.405), and environmental factors directly affect human factors (weight coefficient of 0.994), whereas material factors directly affect method factors (weight coefficient of 0.918). At the same time, it can be seen from the dynamic simulation results that the influence of human factors and method factors on management factors increases sharply in the nascent phase of the simulation cycle (the highest slope is .90), gradually decreases in the intermediary phase (the slope of the inflection point is .11), and is relatively stable in the final phase (the slope is less than 0.11). Three main conclusions have been drawn from this. Firstly, management factors are directly and positively affected by human factors and method factors respectively. Secondly, the interplay between diverse factors evinces a confluence of periodicity and exponential attributes. Thirdly, in each management cycle (set at 381 steps), the main focus is on controlling the causal factors in the early stages of management, with pivotal control points in steps 25 and 100, and the principal management factors comprising the management organization, operating procedures, and protective measures.

摘要

建筑企业的职业健康与安全管理因素是其培训管理中的关键影响因素,其因果原理是值得深入探究的课题。本研究借鉴传统的五因素,首先提出并验证了它们之间的因果模型,随后在NetLogo平台上运用系统动力学对该模型进行动态模拟,最终审视各因素之间的相互关系和动态影响程度。结果表明,管理因素的直接原因包括人为因素(权重系数为0.583)和方法因素(权重系数为0.405),环境因素直接影响人为因素(权重系数为0.994),而物质因素直接影响方法因素(权重系数为0.918)。同时,从动态模拟结果可以看出,人为因素和方法因素对管理因素的影响在模拟周期的初期急剧增加(最高斜率为0.90),在中期逐渐下降(拐点斜率为0.11),在末期相对稳定(斜率小于0.11)。由此得出三个主要结论。其一,管理因素分别受到人为因素和方法因素的直接正向影响。其二,不同因素之间的相互作用呈现出周期性和指数性特征的融合。其三,在每个管理周期(设定为381步)中,主要重点是在管理初期控制因果因素,关键控制点在第25步和第100步,主要管理因素包括管理组织、操作程序和防护措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4527/10404758/ce86790d5417/gr1.jpg

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