State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Aug 29;57(34):12663-12673. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.3c03276. Epub 2023 Aug 9.
Exposure to ambient and indoor particle matter (PM) leads to millions of premature deaths in China. In recent years, indoor air pollution and premature deaths associated with polluting fuel cooking demonstrate an abrupt decline. However, the driving forces behind the mortality change are still unclear due to the uncertainty in household fuel use prediction. Here, we propose an integrated approach to estimate the fuel use fractions and PM-related deaths from outdoor and indoor sources during 2000-2020 across China. Our model estimated 1.67 and 1.21 million premature deaths attributable to PM exposure in 2000 and 2020, respectively. We find that the residential energy transition is associated with a substantial reduction in premature deaths from indoor sources, with 100,000 (95% CI: 76,000-122,000) for urban and 265,000 (228,000-300,000) for rural populations during 2000-2020. Economic growth is the dominant driver of fuel use transition and avoids 21% related deaths (357,000, 315,000-402,000) from polluting fuel cooking since 2000, which offsets the adverse impact of ambient emissions contributed by economic growth. Our findings give an insight into the coupled impact of socioeconomic factors in reshaping health burden in exposure pathways.
暴露于环境和室内颗粒物（PM）导致中国数百万人过早死亡。近年来，室内空气污染和与污染燃料烹饪相关的过早死亡人数急剧下降。然而，由于家庭燃料使用预测的不确定性，导致导致死亡率变化的驱动因素仍不清楚。在这里，我们提出了一种综合方法来估计 2000-2020 年期间中国户外和室内来源的燃料使用比例和与 PM 相关的死亡人数。我们的模型估计，2000 年和 2020 年分别有 167 万人和 121 万人归因于 PM 暴露而过早死亡。我们发现，住宅能源转型与室内来源的过早死亡人数大幅减少有关，城市地区减少了 10 万人（95%CI：76000-122000），农村地区减少了 26.5 万人（228000-300000）。经济增长是燃料使用转型的主要驱动力，自 2000 年以来避免了 21%与污染燃料烹饪相关的死亡人数（35.7 万人，31.5 万人-40.2 万人），抵消了经济增长造成的环境排放的不利影响。我们的研究结果深入了解了社会经济因素在重塑暴露途径中的健康负担方面的综合影响。
