International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Environ Int. 2019 Apr;125:236-244. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.09.059. Epub 2019 Feb 4.
Air pollution is one of the most harmful consequences of China's rapid economic development and urbanization. Particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions, particulate matter concentrations have consistently exceeded the national air quality standards. Over the last years, China implemented ambitious measures to reduce emissions from the power, industry and transportation sectors, with notable success during the 11th and 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) periods. However, such strategies appear to be insufficient to reduce the ambient PM concentration below the National Air Quality Standard of 35 μg m across the BTH region within the next 15 years. We find that a comprehensive mitigation strategy for the residential sector in the BTH region would deliver substantial air quality benefits. Beyond the already planned expansion of district heating and natural gas distribution in urban centers and the foreseen curtailment of coal use for households, such a strategy would redirect some natural gas from power generation units towards the residential sector. Rural households would replace biomass for cooking by liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity, and substitute coal for heating by briquettes. Jointly, these measures could reduce the primary PM and SO emissions by 28% and 11%, respectively, and the population-weighted PM concentrations by 13%, i.e., from 68 μg m to 59 μg m. We estimate that such a strategy would reduce premature deaths attributable to ambient and indoor air pollution by almost one third.
空气污染是中国经济快速发展和城市化进程带来的最有害后果之一。特别是在北京-天津-河北（BTH）地区，颗粒物浓度一直超过国家空气质量标准。近年来，中国实施了雄心勃勃的减排措施，涉及电力、工业和交通等领域，在第十一和第十二个五年规划期间取得了显著成效。然而，这些策略似乎不足以在未来 15 年内将 BTH 地区的环境 PM 浓度降低到国家空气质量标准 35μg/m 以下。我们发现，BTH 地区住宅部门的综合减排策略将带来显著的空气质量效益。除了已经计划在城市中心扩大区域供热和天然气供应，以及预计减少家庭煤炭使用之外，这一策略还将一些天然气从发电单元重新分配到住宅部门。农村家庭将用液化石油气（LPG）和电力代替生物质用于烹饪，用煤饼代替煤炭用于取暖。这些措施共同作用，可将主要 PM 和 SO 排放分别减少 28%和 11%，并将人口加权 PM 浓度降低 13%，即从 68μg/m 降至 59μg/m。我们估计，这样的策略将使归因于环境和室内空气污染的过早死亡人数减少近三分之一。
