Construction and validation of nomograms for predicting the prognosis of elderly patients with uterine serous carcinoma: a SEER-based study.

PURPOSE

To investigate the prognostic indicators, develop and verify nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients with uterine serous carcinoma (USC).

METHODS

Data of eligible USC patients aged ≥ 65 years from 2004 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were collected for retrospective analysis. X-tile software was used to assess the optimal cut-off values. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to explore the prognostic factors. Nomograms were developed to predict the probability of 1-, 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. Concordance indexes (c-index), receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was introduced to examine the clinical value of the models.

RESULTS

Age, Federation International of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, N stage, tumor size, number of lymph nodes resected, and adjuvant therapy were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. The C-indexes were 0.736 (OS), 0.754 (CSS) in the training set and 0.731 (OS), 0.759 (CSS) in the validation set. The area under the curve (AUCs) of OS and CSS for 1-, 3-, and 5-years all exceeded 0.75. The calibration plots for the probability of survival were in good agreement. As shown in DCA curves, the nomograms showed better discrimination power and higher net benefits than the 6th American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomograms constructed based on prognostic risk factors could individually predict the prognosis of elderly USC patients and provide a reference for clinical decision-making.