Xie Zhixiang, Zhao Rongqin, Xiao Liangang, Ding Minglei
College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.
Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions (Henan University), Ministry of Education, Kaifeng, 475004, China.
Carbon Balance Manag. 2023 Aug 11;18(1):16. doi: 10.1186/s13021-023-00235-z.
China's high-quality economic development depends on achieving sustainable economic development, reaching peak carbon emissions, achieving carbon neutrality, and intensifying the development of an industrial and energy structure that saves resources and protects the environment. This study used the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and the Malmquist productivity index to measure the economic development performance of mainland China under carbon emission constraints. Then, it described the spatiotemporal evolution of economic development performance and analyzed its influencing factors using the Tobit model.
The results revealed that there were obvious differences in the trends of the static and dynamic performance of economic development. On the one hand, the static performance of economic development exhibited an upward trend from 2008 to 2020. Its distribution characteristics were dominant in the higher and high-level areas. On the other hand, the dynamic performance had a downward trend from 2008 to 2016 and then an upward trend from 2016 to 2020. In most provinces, the dynamic performance was no longer constrained by technological progress but rather by scale efficiency. It was found that the main factors influencing economic development performance were urbanization level, energy efficiency, vegetation coverage, and foreign investment, while other factors had no significant influence.
This study suggests that China should improve its economic development performance by increasing the use of clean energy, promoting human-centered urbanization, increasing carbon absorption capacity, and absorbing more foreign capital in the future.
中国的高质量经济发展依赖于实现可持续经济发展、达到碳排放峰值、实现碳中和以及强化节约资源和保护环境的产业与能源结构发展。本研究使用数据包络分析（DEA）模型和 Malmquist 生产率指数来衡量碳排放约束下中国大陆的经济发展绩效。然后，描述经济发展绩效的时空演变，并使用 Tobit 模型分析其影响因素。
结果显示，经济发展的静态和动态绩效趋势存在明显差异。一方面，2008 年至 2020 年经济发展的静态绩效呈上升趋势。其分布特征在较高和高水平地区占主导。另一方面，动态绩效在 2008 年至 2016 年呈下降趋势，然后在 2016 年至 2020 年呈上升趋势。在大多数省份，动态绩效不再受技术进步的制约，而是受规模效率的制约。研究发现，影响经济发展绩效的主要因素是城市化水平、能源效率、植被覆盖和外国投资，而其他因素没有显著影响。
本研究表明，中国未来应通过增加清洁能源使用、推进以人为本的城市化、提高碳吸收能力以及吸收更多外资来提高经济发展绩效。
