Yang Jianhui, Ma Rui, Yang Lun
Zhejiang rural revitalization research institute, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 9;10(4):e25816. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e25816. eCollection 2024 Feb 29.
In the context of the vision to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, Mainland China's agricultural development will face strict carbon constraints. This paper analyzes the agricultural land-use efficiency of Mainland China's agriculture under carbon emission constraint from 1996 to 2020, based on the unexpected super SBM (Slack-based measure)-Undesirable DEA, Malmquist index model, and quartile division-GIS method. The results show that: from 1996 to 2020, the agricultural output value per land and grain output per land show an upward trend, and the agricultural carbon emissions per land of most provinces show an increasing trend and larger emissions. The agricultural land-use efficiency in Mainland China rises first and then decreases, and technological progress is the decisive path to improving the agricultural land-use efficiency in Mainland China. The average in the prominent grain-selling area during 1996-2020 was as high as 1.071, which was significantly higher than that in the prominent grain-producing area (1.039) and the balance area (1.030). The improvement of agricultural land-use efficiency is mostly due to technological progress, but the instability of technical input and management in land use. To improve agricultural land-use efficiency in Mainland China, we should pay attention to the precise policy formulation of low-carbon and high-quality development and strengthen government investment in the difference between space resource endowment and development status.
在2030年前实现二氧化碳排放达峰、2060年前实现碳中和的愿景背景下，中国大陆农业发展将面临严格的碳约束。本文基于非期望超SBM（松弛变量测度）-非期望DEA、Malmquist指数模型以及四分位数划分-GIS方法，分析了1996年至2020年碳排放约束下中国大陆农业的土地利用效率。研究结果表明：1996年至2020年，单位土地农业产值和单位土地粮食产量呈上升趋势，多数省份单位土地农业碳排放量呈增加趋势且排放量大。中国大陆农业土地利用效率先上升后下降，技术进步是提高中国大陆农业土地利用效率的决定性路径。1996—2020年粮食主销区平均效率高达1.071，显著高于粮食主产区（1.039）和平衡区（1.030）。农业土地利用效率的提高主要得益于技术进步，但土地利用中技术投入和管理存在不稳定因素。为提高中国大陆农业土地利用效率，应注重低碳高质量发展的精准政策制定，强化政府针对空间资源禀赋与发展状况差异的投入。
