Hit the gym or hit the hay: can evening exercise characteristics predict compromised sleep in healthy adults?

Recent sleep guidelines regarding evening exercise have shifted from a conservative (i.e., do not exercise in the evening) to a more nuanced approach (i.e., exercise may not be detrimental to sleep in circumstances). With the increasing popularity of wearable technology, information regarding exercise and sleep are readily available to the general public. There is potential for these data to aid sleep recommendations within and across different population cohorts. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine if sleep, exercise, and individual characteristics can be used to predict whether evening exercise will compromise sleep. Data regarding evening exercise and the subsequent night's sleep were obtained from 5,250 participants (1,321F, 3,929M, aged 30.1 ± 5.2 yrs) using a wearable device (WHOOP 3.0). Data for females and males were analysed separately. The female and male datasets were both randomly split into subsets of training and testing data (training:testing = 75:25). Algorithms were trained to identify compromised sleep (i.e., sleep efficiency <90%) for females and males based on factors including the intensity, duration and timing of evening exercise. When subsequently evaluated using the independent testing datasets, the algorithms had sensitivity for compromised sleep of 87% for females and 90% for males, specificity of 29% for females and 20% for males, positive predictive value of 32% for females and 36% for males, and negative predictive value of 85% for females and 79% for males. If these results generalise, applying the current algorithms would allow females to exercise on ~ 25% of evenings with ~ 15% of those sleeps being compromised and allow males to exercise on ~ 17% of evenings with ~ 21% of those sleeps being compromised. The main finding of this study was that the models were able to predict a high percentage of nights with compromised sleep based on individual characteristics, exercise characteristics and habitual sleep characteristics. If the benefits of exercising in the evening outweigh the costs of compromising sleep on some of the nights when exercise is undertaken, then the application of the current algorithms could be considered a viable alternative to generalised sleep hygiene guidelines.