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基于复杂网络的国际建设项目风险传递机制研究

Research on the risk transmission mechanism of international construction projects based on complex network.

机构信息

Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Aug 15;18(8):e0285497. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285497. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

The risk transmission process between international construction projects largely contributes to the dilemma of risk management of international construction projects. Firstly, this paper adopts methods such as literature review and brainstorming to identify the risks in international construction projects from all aspects and all stages. Connections between risks is built by the Delphi method and further construct the international construction project risk network. Combined with "ucinet", a network visualization analysis tool, overall feature parameters and local feature parameters are presented for analysis as the focus. Starting from this, the risk transmission in complex construction projects is analyzed to identify key risks and transmission relationships and reveal inherent laws of risk transmission. Accordingly, when formulating risk prevention strategies for international engineering projects, it is proposed that measures to curb risk transmission should be effectively adopted from both key risks and their transmission relationships.

摘要

国际建设项目的风险传递过程在很大程度上导致了国际建设项目风险管理的困境。首先,本文采用文献综述和头脑风暴等方法,从各个方面和各个阶段识别国际建设项目的风险。通过德尔菲法建立风险之间的联系,并进一步构建国际建设项目风险网络。结合网络可视化分析工具“ucinet”,提出了整体特征参数和局部特征参数进行分析的重点。由此,对复杂建设项目的风险传递进行分析,识别关键风险及其传递关系,揭示风险传递的内在规律。因此,在制定国际工程项目风险防范策略时,提出应从关键风险及其传递关系两个方面有效采取遏制风险传递的措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9708/10426995/0d9d6b9e31fd/pone.0285497.g001.jpg

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