Zhao Xi, Wu Yi, Su Jiajia, Gou Jiaojiao
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.
Geohealth. 2023 Aug 14;7(8):e2023GH000861. doi: 10.1029/2023GH000861. eCollection 2023 Aug.
Enabling the rational use of energy and the realization of the "dual carbon goals" across China will require systematic analysis of temporal and spatial changes in surface wind speed (SWS), determination of key factors influencing SWS, and quantification of wind energy resources. We investigated changes of SWS and their potential impact on wind energy resources using daily SWS data from meteorological observations and based on wind power density (WPD) across China during 1961-2021. The SWS changes were related to atmospheric circulation, surface friction (urbanization and vegetation changes), aerosol emissions and the replacement of observation instruments. The increase of SWS after 2015 was closely related to changes of atmospheric circulation that were reflected by changes of Asian Meridional Circulation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation. Compared with the mean SWS, the extreme SWS exhibited a more obvious downward trend and earlier abrupt change. The annual mean SWS decreased by 16.80% in the last six decades, resulting in a decrease of 47.78% in wind energy potential. Regions with annual WPD more than 100 W · m were mainly in western China, northeastern China, northwestern China and some coastal areas. The WPD decreased mainly in northeastern China, northern China, and some coastal areas during the last six decades; it increased mainly in western China. Regions with annual WPD more than 100 W · m and robust coefficient of variation less than 0.5 are high-quality wind energy resource areas and were found mainly in western China, northern China, northeast China, and coastal areas.
要在全国范围内实现能源的合理利用和“双碳目标”，需要对地表风速（SWS）的时空变化进行系统分析，确定影响SWS的关键因素，并对风能资源进行量化。我们利用气象观测的每日SWS数据，并基于1961 - 2021年中国的风能密度（WPD），研究了SWS的变化及其对风能资源的潜在影响。SWS的变化与大气环流、地表摩擦力（城市化和植被变化）、气溶胶排放以及观测仪器的更换有关。2015年后SWS的增加与大气环流的变化密切相关，这通过亚洲经向环流指数、北大西洋涛动和北极涛动的变化得以体现。与平均SWS相比，极端SWS呈现出更明显的下降趋势和更早的突变。在过去六十年中，年平均SWS下降了16.80%，导致风能潜力下降了47.78%。年WPD超过100 W·m的地区主要分布在中国西部、中国东北、中国西北和一些沿海地区。在过去六十年中，WPD主要在中国东北、中国北方和一些沿海地区下降；主要在中国西部增加。年WPD超过100 W·m且变异系数小于0.5的地区是优质风能资源区，主要分布在中国西部、中国北方、中国东北和沿海地区。
