Heo Sujung, Park Sangjin, Lee Dong Kun
Interdisciplinary Program and Life Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, Korea.
Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 18;13(1):13472. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-40106-8.
Numerous natural disasters that threaten people's lives and property occur in Indonesia. Climate change-induced temperature increases are expected to affect the frequency of natural hazards in the future and pose more risks. This study examines the consequences of droughts and forest fires on the Indonesian island of Kalimantan. We first create maps showing the eleven contributing factors that have the greatest impact on forest fires and droughts related to the climate, topography, anthropogenic, and vegetation. Next, we used RF to create single and multi-risk maps for forest fires and droughts in Kalimantan Island. Finally, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) integrated evaluation model, a future climate scenario was applied to predict multiple risk maps for RCP-SSP2-4.5 and RCP-SSP5-8.5 in 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. The probability of a 22.6% drought and a 21.7% forest fire were anticipated to have an influence on the study's findings, and 2.6% of the sites looked at were predicted to be affected by both hazards. Both RCP-SSP2-4.5 and RCP-SSP5-8.5 have an increase in these hazards projected for them. Researchers and stakeholders may use these findings to assess risks under various mitigation strategies and estimate the spatial behavior of such forest fire and drought occurrences.
印度尼西亚发生了许多威胁人们生命和财产的自然灾害。预计气候变化导致的气温上升将影响未来自然灾害的发生频率，并带来更多风险。本研究考察了印度尼西亚加里曼丹岛干旱和森林火灾的后果。我们首先绘制地图，展示对与气候、地形、人为因素和植被相关的森林火灾和干旱影响最大的11个促成因素。接下来，我们使用随机森林（RF）为加里曼丹岛的森林火灾和干旱创建单一风险和多风险地图。最后，使用耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）综合评估模型，应用未来气候情景预测2040 - 2059年和2080 - 2099年RCP - SSP2 - 4.5和RCP - SSP5 - 8.5的多重风险地图。预计22.6%的干旱概率和21.7%的森林火灾概率会对研究结果产生影响，预计所考察地点的2.6%会受到这两种灾害的影响。预计RCP - SSP2 - 4.5和RCP - SSP5 - 8.5的这些灾害都会增加。研究人员和利益相关者可以利用这些结果评估各种缓解策略下的风险，并估计此类森林火灾和干旱事件的空间行为。
