Lopes Letícia Dos Santos, Ramos Gustavo L P A, Alvarenga Verônica O, Campagnollo Fernanda B, Oliveira Syllas B S, Freire Luisa, Sant'Ana Anderson S
Embrapa Swine and Poultry, Concórdia, SC, Brazil; Department of Food Science and Nutrition, Faculty of Food Engineering, University of Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.
Department of Bromatology, Faculty of Pharmacy, Fluminense Federal University, Niterói, RJ, Brazil.
Environ Res. 2023 Nov 15;237(Pt 1):116907. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116907. Epub 2023 Aug 18.
In this study, the probability of occurrence of fumonisins in corn in the states of greatest production in Brazil was determined. The data were analyzed through quantitative risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that there is a strong correlation between fumonisins contamination levels and the geographical region due to the influence of climatic characteristics, with temperature having the main influence. The Southern states presented higher risks of occurrence and concentration levels of fumonisins in corn due to the temperate climate with lower average temperature and higher relative humidity and precipitation indices. Cultivation in the best season indicates a significant reduction in the production of fumonisins when this period was evaluated, with average concentration levels up to 42% lower. The generated data are important for regulatory agencies and the agricultural sector, which needs to be aware that the chance of success in grain production depends on efficient planning of the growing season, mainly concerning the climatic conditions to which it is subject to minimize the risks.
在本研究中，测定了巴西玉米产量最高的几个州玉米中伏马菌素的发生概率。通过使用蒙特卡洛模拟的定量风险分析对数据进行了分析。结果表明，由于气候特征的影响，伏马菌素污染水平与地理区域之间存在很强的相关性，其中温度的影响最为主要。由于南部各州气候温和，平均温度较低，相对湿度和降水指数较高，因此这些州玉米中伏马菌素的发生风险和浓度水平较高。在最佳季节进行种植表明，在评估该时期时伏马菌素的产量显著降低，平均浓度水平降低了42%。生成的数据对监管机构和农业部门很重要，农业部门需要意识到谷物生产成功的机会取决于生长季节的有效规划，主要是考虑到其所处的气候条件以将风险降至最低。
