Adegbite Gbenga, Edeki Sunday, Isewon Itunuoluwa, Emmanuel Jerry, Dokunmu Titilope, Rotimi Solomon, Oyelade Jelili, Adebiyi Ezekiel
Covenant University Bioinformatics Research, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria.
Department of Computer and Information Sciences, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria.
Infect Dis Model. 2023 Aug 21;8(4):1015-1031. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.08.005. eCollection 2023 Dec.
Malaria importation is one of the hypothetical drivers of malaria transmission dynamics across the globe. Several studies on malaria importation focused on the effect of the use of conventional malaria control strategies as approved by the World Health Organization (WHO) on malaria transmission dynamics but did not capture the effect of the use of traditional malaria control strategies by vigilant humans. In order to handle the aforementioned situation, a novel system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) was developed comprising the human and the malaria vector compartments. Analysis of the system was carried out to assess its quantitative properties. The novel computational algorithm used to solve the developed system of ODEs was implemented and benchmarked with the existing Runge-Kutta numerical solution method. Furthermore, simulations of different vigilant conditions useful to control malaria were carried out. The novel system of malaria models was well-posed and epidemiologically meaningful based on its quantitative properties. The novel algorithm performed relatively better in terms of model simulation accuracy than Runge-Kutta. At the best model-fit condition of 98% vigilance to the use of conventional and traditional malaria control strategies, this study revealed that malaria importation has a persistent impact on malaria transmission dynamics. In lieu of this, this study opined that total vigilance to the use of the WHO-approved and traditional malaria management tools would be the most effective control strategy against malaria importation.
疟疾输入是全球疟疾传播动态的假设驱动因素之一。几项关于疟疾输入的研究聚焦于世界卫生组织（WHO）批准的传统疟疾控制策略的使用对疟疾传播动态的影响，但未考量警惕的人群使用传统疟疾控制策略的影响。为应对上述情况，开发了一个由人类和疟疾媒介区室组成的新型常微分方程（ODEs）系统。对该系统进行了分析以评估其定量特性。用于求解所开发的ODEs系统的新型计算算法得以实现，并与现有的龙格 - 库塔数值解法进行了基准测试。此外，还针对有助于控制疟疾的不同警惕条件进行了模拟。基于其定量特性，新型疟疾模型系统是适定的且具有流行病学意义。在模型模拟精度方面，新型算法比龙格 - 库塔算法表现得相对更好。在对传统和传统疟疾控制策略的使用保持98%警惕的最佳模型拟合条件下，本研究表明疟疾输入对疟疾传播动态具有持续影响。据此，本研究认为对WHO批准的和传统疟疾管理工具的使用保持全面警惕将是对抗疟疾输入的最有效控制策略。
