Haringo Andualem Tekle, Obsu Legesse Lemecha, Bushu Feyissa Kebede
Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia.
Infect Dis Model. 2025 Jul 25;10(4):1456-1478. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.012. eCollection 2025 Dec.
A considerable proportion of malaria infections are asymptomatic, serving as reservoirs that sustain transmission. This study develops a deterministic mathematical model to examine the spread of malaria with a focus on asymptomatic infections. By analyzing key properties such as positivity, boundedness, and stability of equilibria, the model highlights the epidemiological relevance of these silent carriers. The basic reproduction number was calculated using the next-generation matrix method, revealing critical dynamics, including backward bifurcation. The quantitative result of the threshold reveals that asymptomatic cases contribute approximately 30 % to the basic reproduction number, while symptomatic cases account for about 70 %. These findings highlight the need for integrated control strategies that address both symptomatic and asymptomatic malaria cases to effectively manage and reduce malaria transmission.
相当一部分疟疾感染是无症状的，这些无症状感染者充当着维持传播的传染源。本研究建立了一个确定性数学模型，以研究疟疾传播，重点关注无症状感染。通过分析平衡点的正性、有界性和稳定性等关键性质，该模型突出了这些无症状携带者的流行病学意义。使用下一代矩阵法计算了基本再生数，揭示了包括反向分岔在内的关键动态。阈值的定量结果表明，无症状病例对基本再生数的贡献约为30%，而有症状病例约占70%。这些发现凸显了采取综合控制策略的必要性，该策略应同时应对有症状和无症状疟疾病例，以有效管理和减少疟疾传播。
