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行为疫苗接种政策和传染病动力学中的游戏环境反馈。

Behavioral vaccination policies and game-environment feedback in epidemic dynamics.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 4;13(1):14520. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-41420-x.

Abstract

Many policymakers have adopted voluntary vaccination policies to alleviate the consequences of contagious diseases. Such policies have several well-established feathers, i.e. they are seasonal, depending on an individual's decision, adaptive, and control epidemic activity. Here, we study ideas from behavioral epidemiology embedded with a vaccination game and pairwise two-player two-strategy game to represent the environmental feedback in an SVIR model by using a composite information index including disease incidence, vaccine factors and cooperative behavior on a global time scale (repeated season). In its turn, the information index's game dynamics to participate in the vaccine program (cooperation) is supposed to reflect the feedback-evolving dynamics of competitive cognitions and the environment. The assuming model is described by two different evolutionary game systems connected by an unknown external public opinion environment feedback. The embedded model is described by an inherited system showing a behavioral aspect, i.e. pairwise game indicates an individual's cooperative behavior, and a vaccine game refers to vaccine-cost influence. This is a novel attempt to stabilize the two different decision processes to pool them into a single index. Extensive simulations suggest a rich spectrum of achievable results, including epidemic control, human behavior, social dilemma, and policy suggestions.

摘要

许多政策制定者已经采取了自愿接种疫苗的政策,以减轻传染病的后果。这些政策有几个既定的优点,即具有季节性、取决于个人决策、适应性强且能够控制疫情活动。在这里,我们研究了行为流行病学中的一些想法,这些想法嵌入到接种疫苗的博弈和双人二人两策略博弈中,通过使用包括疾病发病率、疫苗因素和合作行为在内的综合信息指数,在全球时间尺度(重复季节)上表示 SVIR 模型中的环境反馈。反过来,信息指数的博弈动态(合作)被认为反映了竞争认知和环境的反馈演变动态。假设模型由两个通过未知的外部舆论环境反馈连接的不同进化博弈系统描述。嵌入模型由一个表现出行为方面的遗传系统描述,即双人博弈表示个人的合作行为,而疫苗博弈则指疫苗成本的影响。这是一种将两种不同决策过程稳定到单个指标中的新尝试。广泛的模拟表明了可实现的丰富结果,包括传染病控制、人类行为、社会困境和政策建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5893/10477251/5dd2d199cdb0/41598_2023_41420_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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