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佩戴口罩行为对疫情动态的影响。

The effect of behavior of wearing masks on epidemic dynamics.

作者信息

Li Weiqiang, Zhou Jin, Lu Jun-An

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072 China.

出版信息

Nonlinear Dyn. 2020;101(3):1995-2001. doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05759-4. Epub 2020 Jun 22.

DOI:10.1007/s11071-020-05759-4
PMID:32836804
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7307808/
Abstract

Recently, COVID-19 has attracted a lot of attention of researchers from different fields. Wearing masks is a frequently adopted precautionary measure. In this paper, we investigate the effect of behavior of wearing masks on epidemic dynamics in the context of COVID-19. At each time, every susceptible individual chooses whether to wear a mask or not in the next time step, which depends on an evaluation of the potential costs and perceived risk of infection. When the cost of infection is high, the majority of the population choose to wear masks, where global awareness plays a significant role. However, if the mask source is limited, global awareness may give rise to a negative result. In this case, more mask source should be allocated to the individuals with high risk of infection.

摘要

最近,新型冠状病毒肺炎引起了不同领域研究人员的广泛关注。佩戴口罩是一种经常采用的预防措施。在本文中,我们研究了在新型冠状病毒肺炎背景下佩戴口罩行为对疫情动态的影响。在每个时刻,每个易感个体都会根据对潜在成本和感知感染风险的评估,选择在下一个时间步是否佩戴口罩。当感染成本很高时,大多数人会选择佩戴口罩,其中全球意识起着重要作用。然而,如果口罩来源有限,全球意识可能会产生负面结果。在这种情况下,应该将更多的口罩来源分配给感染风险高的个体。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/24e564716bf2/11071_2020_5759_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/2574ac88fd5e/11071_2020_5759_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/b6d604a2a88e/11071_2020_5759_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/19b9a7b64b4b/11071_2020_5759_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/24e564716bf2/11071_2020_5759_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/2574ac88fd5e/11071_2020_5759_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/b6d604a2a88e/11071_2020_5759_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/19b9a7b64b4b/11071_2020_5759_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bca5/7307808/24e564716bf2/11071_2020_5759_Fig4_HTML.jpg

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