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校正区域气候模式边界变量中的偏差以改进对高影响复合事件的模拟。

Correcting biases in regional climate model boundary variables for improved simulation of high-impact compound events.

作者信息

Kim Youngil, Evans Jason P, Sharma Ashish

机构信息

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

出版信息

iScience. 2023 Aug 21;26(9):107696. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.107696. eCollection 2023 Sep 15.

Abstract

Although climate models have been used to assess compound events, the combination of multiple hazards or drivers poses uncertainties because of the systemic biases present. Here, we investigate multivariate bias correction for correcting systemic bias in the boundaries that form the inputs of regional climate models (RCMs). This improves the representation of physical relationships among variables, essential for accurate characterization of compound events. We address four types of compound events that result from eight different hazards. The results show that while the RCM simulations presented here exhibit similar performance for some event types, the multivariate bias correction broadly improves the RCM representation of compound events compared to no correction or univariate correction, particularly for coincident high temperature and high precipitation. The RCM with uncorrected boundaries tends to produce a negative bias in the return period of these events, suggesting a tendency to over-simulate compound events with respect to observed events.

摘要

尽管气候模型已被用于评估复合事件,但由于存在系统性偏差,多种灾害或驱动因素的组合带来了不确定性。在此,我们研究多元偏差校正,以校正构成区域气候模型(RCM)输入的边界中的系统性偏差。这改善了变量之间物理关系的表示,这对于准确表征复合事件至关重要。我们处理了由八种不同灾害导致的四种类型的复合事件。结果表明,虽然此处呈现的RCM模拟对于某些事件类型表现出相似的性能,但与不校正或单变量校正相比,多元偏差校正广泛地改善了RCM对复合事件的表示,特别是对于高温和高降水同时出现的情况。边界未校正的RCM在这些事件的重现期往往会产生负偏差,这表明相对于观测事件,它倾向于过度模拟复合事件。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f78b/10480633/443d67c3486e/fx1.jpg

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