Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany.
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, 5-3-1 Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-0083, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 8;13(1):14836. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-42080-7.
When sharing a common goal, confident and competent members are often motivated to contribute to the group, boosting its decision performance. However, it is unclear whether this process remains effective when members can opt in or out of group decisions and prioritize individual interests. Our laboratory experiment (n = 63) and cognitive modeling showed that at the individual level, confidence, competence, and a preference for risk motivated participants' opt-out decisions. We then analyzed the group-level accuracy of majority decisions by creating many virtual groups of 25 members resampled from the 63 participants in the experiment. Whereas the majority decisions by voters who preferred to participate in group decision making were inferior to individual decisions by loners who opted out in an easy task, this was reversed in a difficult task. Bootstrap-simulation analyses decomposed these outcomes into the effects of a decrease in group size and a decrease in voters' accuracy accruing from the opt-in/out mechanism, demonstrating how these effects interacted with task difficulty. Our results suggest that the majority rule still works to tackle challenging problems even when individual interests are emphasized over collective performance, playing a functional as well as a democratic role in consensus decision making under uncertainty.
当成员拥有共同目标时，自信且有能力的成员往往更有动力为团队做出贡献，从而提高团队的决策表现。然而，当成员可以选择是否参与团队决策并优先考虑个人利益时，这种过程是否仍然有效还不清楚。我们的实验室实验（n=63）和认知建模表明，在个人层面上，信心、能力和风险偏好会促使参与者做出退出决策。然后，我们通过从实验中的 63 名参与者中随机抽取 25 名成员来创建许多虚拟的 25 人小组，分析了多数决策的群体准确性。在简单任务中，偏好参与群体决策的投票者的多数决策不如选择退出的独行者的个人决策准确，但在困难任务中则相反。自举模拟分析将这些结果分解为群体规模缩小和投票者准确性降低的影响，这些影响源自于选择加入或退出的机制，展示了这些影响如何与任务难度相互作用。我们的研究结果表明，即使强调个人利益而非集体表现，多数规则仍然可以有效地解决具有挑战性的问题，在不确定情况下的共识决策中发挥着功能和民主作用。
