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COVID-19 Excess Deaths in Peru's 25 States in 2020: Nationwide Trends, Confounding Factors, and Correlations With the Extent of Ivermectin Treatment by State.

作者信息

Chamie Juan J, Hibberd Jennifer A, Scheim David E

机构信息

Data Analysis, Independent Data Analyst, Cambridge, USA.

Faculty of Dentistry, University of Toronto, Toronto, CAN.

出版信息

Cureus. 2023 Aug 8;15(8):e43168. doi: 10.7759/cureus.43168. eCollection 2023 Aug.


DOI:10.7759/cureus.43168
PMID:37692571
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10484241/
Abstract

Introduction In 2020, nations hastened to contain an emerging COVID-19 pandemic by deploying diverse public health approaches, but conclusive appraisals of the efficacy of these approaches are elusive in most cases. One of the medicines deployed, ivermectin (IVM), a macrocyclic lactone having biochemical activity against SARS-CoV-2 through competitive binding to its spike protein, has yielded mixed results in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) for COVID-19 treatments. In Peru, an opportunity to track the efficacy of IVM with a close consideration of confounding factors was provided through data for excess deaths as correlated with IVM use in 2020, under semi-autonomous policies in its 25 states. Methods To evaluate possible IVM treatment effects, excess deaths as determined from Peruvian national health data were analyzed by state for ages ≥60 in Peru's 25 states. These data were compared with monthly summary data for excess deaths in Peru for the period 2020-2021 as published by the WHO in 2022. To identify potential confounding factors, Google mobility data, population densities, SARS-CoV-2 genetic variations, and seropositivity rates were also examined. Results Reductions in excess deaths over a period of 30 days after peak deaths averaged 74% in the 10 states with the most intensive IVM use. As determined across all 25 states, these reductions in excess deaths correlated closely with the extent of IVM use (p<0.002). During four months of IVM use in 2020, before a new president of Peru restricted its use, there was a 14-fold reduction in nationwide excess deaths and then a 13-fold increase in the two months following the restriction of IVM use. Notably, these trends in nationwide excess deaths align with WHO summary data for the same period in Peru. Conclusions The natural experiment that was put into motion with the authorization of IVM use for COVID-19 in Peru in May 2020, as analyzed using data on excess deaths by locality and by state from Peruvian national health sources, resulted in strong evidence for the drug's effectiveness. Several potential confounding factors, including effects of a social isolation mandate imposed in May 2020, variations in the genetic makeup of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and differences in seropositivity rates and population densities across the 25 states, were considered but did not appear to have significantly influenced these outcomes.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/018d/10484241/4d5e9e7b8c5f/cureus-0015-00000043168-i03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/018d/10484241/9abdf41f151d/cureus-0015-00000043168-i01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/018d/10484241/ff94124f4760/cureus-0015-00000043168-i02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/018d/10484241/4d5e9e7b8c5f/cureus-0015-00000043168-i03.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/018d/10484241/9abdf41f151d/cureus-0015-00000043168-i01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/018d/10484241/ff94124f4760/cureus-0015-00000043168-i02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/018d/10484241/4d5e9e7b8c5f/cureus-0015-00000043168-i03.jpg

相似文献

[1]
COVID-19 Excess Deaths in Peru's 25 States in 2020: Nationwide Trends, Confounding Factors, and Correlations With the Extent of Ivermectin Treatment by State.

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[2]
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[3]
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[4]
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[6]
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[10]
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引用本文的文献

[1]
Unlocking insights: Navigating COVID-19 challenges and Emulating future pandemic Resilience strategies with strengthening natural immunity.

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[2]
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Viruses. 2024-4-22

[3]
Wheel Replacing Pyramid: Better Paradigm Representing Totality of Evidence-Based Medicine.

Ann Glob Health. 2024-2-29

[4]
Sialylated Glycan Bindings from SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein to Blood and Endothelial Cells Govern the Severe Morbidities of COVID-19.

Int J Mol Sci. 2023-12-1

本文引用的文献

[1]
When Characteristics of Clinical Trials Require Per-Protocol as Well as Intention-to-Treat Outcomes to Draw Reliable Conclusions: Three Examples.

J Clin Med. 2023-5-23

[2]
Effect of Higher-Dose Ivermectin for 6 Days vs Placebo on Time to Sustained Recovery in Outpatients With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

JAMA. 2023-3-21

[3]
Effect of Ivermectin vs Placebo on Time to Sustained Recovery in Outpatients With Mild to Moderate COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

JAMA. 2022-10-25

[4]
Regular Use of Ivermectin as Prophylaxis for COVID-19 Led Up to a 92% Reduction in COVID-19 Mortality Rate in a Dose-Response Manner: Results of a Prospective Observational Study of a Strictly Controlled Population of 88,012 Subjects.

Cureus. 2022-8-31

[5]
Time to Stop Using Ineffective Covid-19 Drugs.

N Engl J Med. 2022-8-18

[6]
Randomized Trial of Metformin, Ivermectin, and Fluvoxamine for Covid-19.

N Engl J Med. 2022-8-18

[7]
Ivermectin under scrutiny: a systematic review and meta-analysis of efficacy and possible sources of controversies in COVID-19 patients.

Virol J. 2022-6-13

[8]
The relative effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on wave one Covid-19 mortality: natural experiment in 130 countries.

BMC Public Health. 2022-6-3

[9]
Effect of Early Treatment with Ivermectin among Patients with Covid-19.

N Engl J Med. 2022-5-5

[10]
A Deadly Embrace: Hemagglutination Mediated by SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein at Its 22 N-Glycosylation Sites, Red Blood Cell Surface Sialoglycoproteins, and Antibody.

Int J Mol Sci. 2022-2-25

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