Wageningen University & Research.
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2024 Nov;78(3):483-501. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2243913. Epub 2023 Sep 12.
Precise estimates of the impact of famine on infant and child mortality are rare due to lack of representative data. Using vital statistics reports on the Netherlands for 1935-47, we examine the impact of the Dutch famine (November 1944 to May 1945) on age-specific mortality risk and cause of death in four age groups (stillbirths, <1 year, 1-4, 5-14) in the three largest famine-affected cities and the remainder of the country. Mortality during the famine is compared with the pre-war period January 1935 to April 1940, the war period May 1940 to October 1944, and the post-war period June 1945 to December 1947. The famine's impact was most visible in infants because of the combined effects of a high absolute death rate and a threefold increase in proportional mortality, mostly from gastrointestinal conditions. These factors make infant mortality the most sensitive indicator of famine severity in this setting and a candidate marker for comparative use in future studies.
由于缺乏代表性数据，准确估计饥荒对婴儿和儿童死亡率的影响是罕见的。利用荷兰 1935 年至 1947 年的人口统计报告，我们研究了荷兰饥荒（1944 年 11 月至 1945 年 5 月）对四个年龄组（死产、<1 岁、1-4 岁、5-14 岁）在受灾最严重的三个城市和该国其他地区的特定年龄死亡率风险和死亡原因的影响。饥荒期间的死亡率与战前时期（1935 年 1 月至 1940 年 4 月）、战争时期（1940 年 5 月至 1944 年 10 月）和战后时期（1945 年 6 月至 1947 年 12 月）进行了比较。由于绝对死亡率高和比例死亡率增加三倍（主要是由于胃肠道疾病）的综合影响，饥荒对婴儿的影响最为明显。这些因素使婴儿死亡率成为这种情况下衡量饥荒严重程度的最敏感指标，也是未来研究中进行比较的候选指标。
