Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710032, China.
Department of Pediatrics, Xijing Hospital, the Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Oct;30(47):104043-104055. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29699-9. Epub 2023 Sep 12.
Human brucellosis (HB) is a seasonal and climate-affected infectious disease that is posing an increasing threat to public health and economy. However, most of the research on the seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB did not consider the secular trend and spatiotemporal effect related to the disease. We herein utilized long-term surveillance data on HB from 2008 to 2020 using sinusoidal models to explore detrended relationships between climatic factors and HB. In addition, we assessed the impact of such climatic factors on HB using a spatial panel data model combined with the spatiotemporal effect. HB peaked around mid-May. HB was significantly correlated with climatic factors with 1-5-month lag when the respective correlations reached the maximum across the different lag periods. Each 0.1 °C increase in temperature led to 0.5% decrease in the 5-month lag incidence of HB. We also observed a positive spatiotemporal effect on the disease. Our study provides a detailed and in-depth overview of seasonal relationships and impact of climatic factors on HB. In addition, it proposes a novel approach for exploring the seasonal relationships and quantifying the impacts of climatic factors on various infectious diseases.
人类布鲁氏菌病（HB）是一种季节性和受气候影响的传染病，对公共卫生和经济构成越来越大的威胁。然而，大多数关于季节性关系和气候因素对 HB 影响的研究都没有考虑到与疾病相关的长期趋势和时空效应。我们在此利用 2008 年至 2020 年 HB 的长期监测数据，采用正弦模型来探讨气候因素与 HB 之间的趋势关系。此外，我们还评估了这些气候因素对 HB 的影响，采用了时空效应的空间面板数据模型。HB 的发病高峰出现在 5 月中旬左右。HB 与气候因素呈显著相关，在不同的滞后期内，当各自的相关性达到最大值时，存在 1-5 个月的滞后。温度每升高 0.1°C，HB 的 5 个月滞后发病率就会降低 0.5%。我们还观察到对疾病的正时空效应。我们的研究提供了关于 HB 的季节性关系和气候因素影响的详细深入概述。此外，它提出了一种新的方法来探索季节性关系，并量化气候因素对各种传染病的影响。
