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2013-2020 年中国百岁老人死亡的流行病学特征:趋势和次国家分析。

Epidemiological characteristics of centenarian deaths in China during 2013-2020: A trend and subnational analysis.

机构信息

National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.

出版信息

Chin Med J (Engl). 2024 Jul 5;137(13):1544-1552. doi: 10.1097/CM9.0000000000002823. Epub 2023 Sep 15.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Studies that comprehensively address the characteristics of centenarian deaths are rare. The present study aimed to depict the characteristics of centenarian deaths in China and their changing trends.

METHODS

Data on centenarian deaths between 2013 and 2020 were obtained from the national mortality surveillance system of China, including date, place of death (PoD), and underlying cause of death (CoD). Descriptive analyses were performed to understand the epidemiological characteristics, and a joinpoint regression model was adopted to examine the changing trends in the proportions of different PoDs, CoDs among centenarians, and centenarian deaths accounting for all deaths and deaths among people aged 65 years and older.

RESULTS

There were 46,938 registered centenarian deaths between 2013 and 2020 that included 34,311 females (73.10%) and 12,627 males (26.90%). January (12.05%), February (9.99%), and December (9.74%) were the top three months with the highest number of deaths. The proportions of deaths that occurred in homes, hospitals, and nursing homes were 81.71%, 13.63%, and 2.68%, respectively. The proportion of deaths in nursing homes increased by 9.60% (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 6.4-12.9%) from 2014 to 2020. Heart disease (35.72%) was the leading cause of death, followed by respiratory diseases (17.63%), cerebrovascular disease (15.60%), and old age (11.22%). The proportion of respiratory diseases decreased by 4.8% (95% CI, -8.8 to -0.7%), and the proportion of deaths from old age decreased by 2.3% (95% CI, -4.4 to -0.1%) per year. Shanghai had the highest proportions of deaths in hospitals (39.38%) and nursing homes (14.68%). Sichuan had the highest proportion of deaths attributed to respiratory diseases (32.30%), while Jiangsu (26.58%) and Zhejiang (23.61%) had the highest proportions of deaths from old age.

CONCLUSION

Unlike other countries, centenarian deaths in China are characterized by a higher proportion of home and heart disease deaths, and this death pattern differs across provinces.

摘要

背景

全面阐述百岁老人死亡特征的研究较为少见。本研究旨在描述中国百岁老人死亡的特征及其变化趋势。

方法

本研究数据来自中国国家死因监测系统,涵盖了 2013 年至 2020 年期间的百岁老人死亡数据,包括死亡日期、地点(死亡地点)和根本死因。采用描述性分析方法了解其流行病学特征,并采用 joinpoint 回归模型分析不同死亡地点、根本死因在百岁老人中的比例变化趋势,以及百岁老人死亡占总死亡人数和 65 岁及以上人群死亡人数的比例变化趋势。

结果

2013 年至 2020 年期间,共登记 46938 例百岁老人死亡,其中女性 34311 例(73.10%),男性 12627 例(26.90%)。1 月(12.05%)、2 月(9.99%)和 12 月(9.74%)是死亡人数最多的 3 个月份。死亡地点中,家中、医院和养老院的比例分别为 81.71%、13.63%和 2.68%。养老院的死亡比例从 2014 年到 2020 年增加了 9.60%(95%置信区间:6.4-12.9%)。心脏病(35.72%)是主要死因,其次是呼吸系统疾病(17.63%)、脑血管疾病(15.60%)和高龄(11.22%)。呼吸系统疾病的比例下降了 4.8%(95%置信区间:-8.8 至-0.7%),高龄导致的死亡比例每年下降 2.3%(95%置信区间:-4.4 至-0.1%)。上海的医院(39.38%)和养老院(14.68%)死亡比例最高。四川的呼吸系统疾病死亡比例最高(32.30%),而江苏(26.58%)和浙江(23.61%)的高龄死亡比例最高。

结论

与其他国家不同,中国的百岁老人死亡以更高的家中和心脏病死亡比例为特征,且这种死亡模式在各省份之间存在差异。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bc7b/11230835/30f986a09700/cm9-137-1544-g001.jpg

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