Li Xueqin, Zheng Zhuoji, Shi Daqian, Han Xianfeng, Zhao Mingzhu
School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China.
School of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 20;905:167172. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167172. Epub 2023 Sep 17.
The advancement of new urbanization policy (NU) and the attainment of double carbon targets play pivotal roles in facilitating high-quality economic development in China. This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the mechanism and spatial spillover effects of NU on carbon emission intensity reduction (CEIR), building upon an examination of the nature of NU and the principles of urban carbon pollution control. The research employs a multi-period difference-in-difference model (DID) to explore the causal relationship between NU and CEIR, using panel data from 278 prefecture-level cities spanning the period of 2006 to 2020. Empirical results demonstrate that the implementation of NU resulted in an 8.4 % reduction in carbon emission intensity (CEI). Furthermore, the analysis of the transmission mechanism reveals that NU stimulates green technology innovation and facilitates the development of industrial agglomeration, thus achieving CEIR. The decomposition of the spatial Durbin model indicates significant spatial spillover effects in the effectiveness of NU, signifying its positive impacts not only within the region but also in generating benefits for surrounding areas. Moreover, the dynamic heterogeneity results indicate that entrepreneurial vitality and urbanization rate exhibit dynamic effects on the policy's CEIR effect, both displaying nonlinear enhancement curves. Based on this, the policy implications of this paper include: The government should enhance regional coordinated governance to address carbon emissions pollution in alignment with China's NU. This can be accomplished by effectively harnessing the driving role of green innovation and industrial agglomeration. Additionally, the local government can actively create an entrepreneurial atmosphere and expedite the urbanization process in order to support NU in the implementation and achievement of CEIR.
新型城镇化政策（NU）的推进和双碳目标的实现对推动中国高质量经济发展起着关键作用。本文在考察新型城镇化的本质和城市碳污染控制原则的基础上，对新型城镇化对碳排放强度降低（CEIR）的作用机制和空间溢出效应进行了全面分析。该研究采用多期双重差分模型（DID），利用2006年至2020年期间278个地级市的面板数据，探讨新型城镇化与碳排放强度降低之间的因果关系。实证结果表明，新型城镇化的实施使碳排放强度（CEI）降低了8.4%。此外，对传导机制的分析表明，新型城镇化刺激了绿色技术创新，促进了产业集聚的发展，从而实现了碳排放强度降低。空间杜宾模型的分解表明，新型城镇化的有效性存在显著的空间溢出效应，这意味着它不仅对本地区有积极影响，而且还为周边地区带来好处。此外，动态异质性结果表明，创业活力和城镇化率对该政策的碳排放强度降低效应具有动态影响，两者均呈现非线性增强曲线。基于此，本文的政策建议包括：政府应加强区域协同治理，以配合中国的新型城镇化来应对碳排放污染。这可以通过有效发挥绿色创新和产业集聚的带动作用来实现。此外，地方政府可以积极营造创业氛围，加快城镇化进程，以支持新型城镇化在碳排放强度降低方面的实施和成效。
