Charrat Jean-Philippe, Massoubre Catherine, Germain Natacha, Gay Aurélia, Galusca Bogdan
TAPE (Eating Disorders, Addictions and Extreme Bodyweight) Laboratory, University Jean Monnet, Saint Etienne, France.
Centre TCA, Hôpital Nord, Batiment A, CHU Saint Etienne, 42055, Saint Etienne Cedex 2, France.
J Eat Disord. 2023 Sep 20;11(1):163. doi: 10.1186/s40337-023-00882-0.
According to case‒control studies, a multitude of factors contribute to the emergence of anorexia nervosa (AN). The present systematic review examines prospective studies specifically designed to evaluate the prediction of AN onset.
According to the ARMSTAR 2 and PRISMA 2020 checklists, the PubMed, PsycINFO and Cochrane databases were searched. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed with the Downs and Black checklist.
Three articles concerning prospective studies of the general population were ultimately included in the review. The methodological quality of these studies was not optimal. Bidirectional amplification effects were observed between risk factors, some of which could have a relative predictive force as low bodyweight or body dissatisfaction. Even if not included according to specified criteria for this systematic review 11 longitudinal studies, with retrospective analysis of AN onset' prediction, were also discussed. None of these studies asserted the predictive value of particular risk factors as low body weight, anxiety disorders or childhood aggression.
To date there are insufficient established data to propose predictive markers of AN onset for predictive actions in pre-adolescent or adolescent populations. Future work should further evaluate potential risk factors previously identified in case‒control/retrospective studies within larger prospective investigations in preadolescent populations. It is important to clearly distinguish predisposing factors from precipitating factors in subjects at risk of developing AN.
根据病例对照研究，多种因素导致神经性厌食症（AN）的出现。本系统评价专门考察了旨在评估AN发病预测的前瞻性研究。
根据ARMSTAR 2和PRISMA 2020清单，检索了PubMed、PsycINFO和Cochrane数据库。采用唐斯和布莱克清单评估研究的方法学质量。
本评价最终纳入了3篇关于普通人群前瞻性研究的文章。这些研究的方法学质量并非最佳。在危险因素之间观察到双向放大效应，其中一些危险因素可能具有相对较低的预测力，如低体重或身体不满。即使未根据本系统评价的特定标准纳入，还讨论了11项对AN发病预测进行回顾性分析的纵向研究。这些研究均未断言特定危险因素（如低体重、焦虑症或儿童期攻击行为）的预测价值。
迄今为止，尚无足够的确立数据来提出AN发病的预测标志物，以便在青春期前或青少年人群中采取预测行动。未来的工作应在更大规模的青春期前人群前瞻性研究中，进一步评估先前在病例对照/回顾性研究中确定的潜在危险因素。在有患AN风险的受试者中，明确区分易感因素和诱发因素很重要。
