Manikanta N D, Joseph Sudheer, Naidu C V
Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Hyderabad, India.
Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, College of Science and Technology, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 24;13(1):15949. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-43290-9.
The rapid intensification (RI ≥ 30 knots/24-h) of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes TC forecasting difficult, resulting in severe damage to property and life. Forecasting can get even worse if TCs have experienced RI more than once (referred to as "multiple-RI TCs") in their lifetime. On a global scale, the relation between long-term trends of multiple-RI TC frequency and maximum potential intensity (MPI) changes is investigated in this study. During 1981-2020, the frequency of multiple-RI TCs significantly increased at a rate of 1.2 TCs/decade, which was primarily due to the upper phases of TC becoming conducive to RI as MPI increased. Our analysis shows that the frequency of multiple-RI TCs has increased by 82.43% in 2000-2020 compared to that in 1981-2000, whereas the frequency of single RI TCs has increased by only 1.63%. The rise in MPI elevates the initial intensity at which a TC undergoes maximum intensification rate, making post-Tropical Storm stages of TCs conducive to RI. As a result, TCs can undergo RI multiple times even following a weakening before the intensity approaches MPI.
热带气旋（TCs）的快速增强（RI≥30节/24小时）使得热带气旋预报变得困难，会对财产和生命造成严重破坏。如果热带气旋在其生命周期中经历多次快速增强（称为“多次快速增强的热带气旋”），预报情况会更糟。在全球范围内，本研究调查了多次快速增强的热带气旋频率的长期趋势与最大潜在强度（MPI）变化之间的关系。在1981 - 2020年期间，多次快速增强的热带气旋频率以每十年1.2个热带气旋的速度显著增加，这主要是由于随着最大潜在强度增加，热带气旋的高层阶段变得有利于快速增强。我们的分析表明，与1981 - 2000年相比，2000 - 2020年期间多次快速增强的热带气旋频率增加了82.43%，而单次快速增强的热带气旋频率仅增加了1.63%。最大潜在强度的增加提高了热带气旋达到最大增强率时的初始强度，使得热带气旋在热带风暴阶段之后有利于快速增强。因此，即使在强度接近最大潜在强度之前出现减弱，热带气旋仍可多次经历快速增强。
