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汉坦病毒感染传播的数学模型

Mathematical Model of the Spread of Hantavirus Infection.

作者信息

Gutiérrez-Jara Juan Pablo, Muñoz-Quezada María Teresa, Córdova-Lepe Fernando, Silva-Guzmán Alex

机构信息

Centro de Investigación de Estudios Avanzados del Maule (CIEAM), Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca 3480112, Chile.

School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile, Avenida Independencia 939, Santiago 8320000, Chile.

出版信息

Pathogens. 2023 Sep 8;12(9):1147. doi: 10.3390/pathogens12091147.

Abstract

A mathematical epidemiological model incorporating the mobility of rodents and human groups among zones of less or major contact between them is presented. The hantavirus infection dynamics is expressed using a model type SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed), which incorporates the displacement of the rodent and the human, between the urban and rural sector, the latter being subdivided in populated and non-populated. The results show the impact that rodent or human displacement may have on the propagation of hantavirus infection. Human mobility is more significant than rodents in increasing the number of hantavirus infection cases. The results found may be used as a reference by the health authorities to develop more specific campaigns on the territorial dynamics of the rodent, attend to the mobility of humans in these territories, mainly agricultural and forestry workers, and strengthen control-prevention actions in the community, to prevent future outbreaks that are fatal.

摘要

提出了一种数学流行病学模型,该模型纳入了啮齿动物和人类群体在它们之间接触较少或较多的区域之间的流动情况。汉坦病毒感染动态使用SEIR(易感-暴露-感染-康复)模型类型来表示,该模型纳入了啮齿动物和人类在城市和农村地区之间的迁移,农村地区又细分为有人居住和无人居住的区域。结果显示了啮齿动物或人类迁移可能对汉坦病毒感染传播产生的影响。在增加汉坦病毒感染病例数量方面,人类流动比啮齿动物流动更为显著。所发现的结果可供卫生当局参考,以开展关于啮齿动物地域动态的更具体活动,关注这些地区人类的流动情况,主要是农业和林业工人,并加强社区的防控行动,以预防未来致命的疫情爆发。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/21fe/10536976/d3406b34541d/pathogens-12-01147-g001.jpg

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