Louisiana State University in Shreveport, Department of Mathematics, Shreveport, LA 71115, United States.
Math Biosci Eng. 2010 Jan;7(1):195-211. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.195.
Hantavirus, a zoonotic disease carried by wild rodents, is spread among rodents via direct contact and indirectly via infected rodent excreta in the soil. Spillover to humans is primarily via the indirect route through inhalation of aerosolized viral particles. Rodent-hantavirus models that include direct and indirect transmission and periodically varying demographic and epidemiological parameters are studied in this investigation. Two models are analyzed, a nonautonomous system of differential equations with time-periodic coefficients and an autonomous system, where the coefficients are taken to be the time-average. In the nonautonomous system, births, deaths, transmission rates and viral decay rates are assumed to be periodic. For both models, the basic reproduction numbers are calculated. The models are applied to two rodent populations, reservoirs for a New World and for an Old World hantavirus. The numerical examples show that periodically varying demographic and epidemiological parameters may substantially increase the basic reproduction number. Also, large variations in the viral decay rate in the environment coupled with an outbreak in rodent populations may lead to spillover infection in humans.
汉坦病毒是一种由野生啮齿动物传播的人畜共患病，通过直接接触和间接途径（即通过受感染啮齿动物的粪便在土壤中的传播）在啮齿动物之间传播。人类感染主要通过吸入病毒气溶胶颗粒的间接途径。本研究中研究了包括直接和间接传播以及人口统计学和流行病学参数周期性变化的啮齿动物-汉坦病毒模型。分析了两个模型，一个是具有时变系数的非自治微分方程系统和一个自治系统，其中系数被视为时间平均值。在非自治系统中，出生、死亡、传播率和病毒衰减率被假定为周期性的。对于这两个模型，都计算了基本再生数。将模型应用于两种啮齿动物种群，即新世界和旧世界汉坦病毒的储存库。数值示例表明，人口统计学和流行病学参数的周期性变化可能会显著增加基本再生数。此外，环境中病毒衰减率的大幅变化加上啮齿动物种群的爆发，可能导致人类感染溢出。
