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利用时变格兰杰因果检验重新审视美国1870年至2020年研发强度与二氧化碳排放之间的联系

Revisiting R&D intensity and CO2 emissions link in the USA using time varying granger causality test: 1870∼2020.

作者信息

Chang Hao-Wen, Chang Tsangyao, Xiang Feiyun, Mikhaylov Alexey, Grigorescu Adriana

机构信息

Department of Information Management and Finance, National Yang-Ming Chiao-Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.

Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2023 Sep 20;9(10):e20319. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20319. eCollection 2023 Oct.

Abstract

R&D intensity, per capita GDP, and per capita CO2 emissions links in the USA over the period of 1870-2020 reflects the evolution of the economic development and technology for the environment benefit. Using Time varying Granger causality, the empirical results indicate both causal links between R&D intensity and per capita CO2 emissions and between per capita GDP and per capita CO2 emissions are time varying. In addition, R&D intensity significantly affects per capita CO2 emissions since 1975, and the per capita GDP significantly influences per capita CO2 emissions since 1978. That is, these findings not only in supportive of the EKC theory, but further disentangle the subtly linkages for the R&D intensity and CO2 emissions and the per capita GDP and CO2 emissions. Finally, the policy implication is that launch the new technical innovation and increase in R&D investment to maintain its sustainable economic growth are the best government strategy to reduce CO2 emissions in the USA.

摘要

1870 - 2020年期间美国的研发强度、人均GDP和人均二氧化碳排放之间的联系反映了为环境效益而进行的经济发展和技术演变。使用时变格兰杰因果关系,实证结果表明研发强度与人均二氧化碳排放之间以及人均GDP与人均二氧化碳排放之间的因果联系都是随时间变化的。此外,自1975年以来研发强度对人均二氧化碳排放有显著影响,自1978年以来人均GDP对人均二氧化碳排放有显著影响。也就是说,这些发现不仅支持环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论,而且进一步厘清了研发强度与二氧化碳排放以及人均GDP与二氧化碳排放之间的微妙联系。最后,政策含义是开展新的技术创新并增加研发投资以维持其可持续经济增长是美国减少二氧化碳排放的最佳政府策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d776/10520821/deb200b0850c/gr1.jpg

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