Wang Zongqing, Su Lide, Gong Tao, Bu Te, Zhang Yang
College of Physical Education, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
School of Humanities, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot, China.
Front Sports Act Living. 2024 Jan 8;5:1282898. doi: 10.3389/fspor.2023.1282898. eCollection 2023.
The FIFA World Cup is not only the most lucrative athletic event globally, but it also functions as a platform for promoting peace owing to FIFA's new vision. Nevertheless, the determinants of TV viewership ratings, especially in the Chinese market, which is a critical revenue stream for FIFA TV broadcasting, are still unsolved. Using a distributional regression, this study aimed to quantify the dynamics of viewership ratings for the FIFA World Cup 2022 in mainland China.
The CCTV viewership ratings were modeled using 12 covariables related to Chinese TV consumer behavior. Given the data structure, a Logit Normal regression model was chosen to fit the location and dispersion parameters of viewership ratings to explanatory variables.
In the fitted heteroscedastic model, the viewership ratings dynamics in mainland China were driven by the match kick-off time: . In addition, the model captures the factors that influence the variations in viewership ratings: (if, FIFA World Cup champion = "Yes") + 0.004 × FIFA world ranking]. Thus, it shows that the FIFA World Cup champions tamp down such variations, leading to a more stable viewing behavior among Chinese consumers.
Time- and team-sensitive strategies are proposed to aid in crafting uncertainty-suppressing business decisions for the FIFA World Cup 2026. Ultimately, in the more insecure 2020s, a broader live coverage of the FIFA World Cup would be invaluable for promoting peace.
国际足联世界杯不仅是全球最赚钱的体育赛事,而且由于国际足联的新愿景,它还充当了促进和平的平台。然而,电视收视率的决定因素,尤其是在中国市场这个国际足联电视转播的关键收入来源中,仍然没有得到解决。本研究旨在使用分布回归来量化2022年中国大陆地区国际足联世界杯收视率的动态变化。
使用12个与中国电视消费者行为相关的协变量对中央电视台的收视率进行建模。鉴于数据结构,选择了逻辑正态回归模型来将收视率的位置和离散参数与解释变量进行拟合。
在拟合的异方差模型中,中国大陆地区的收视率动态变化受比赛开球时间的驱动: 。此外,该模型捕捉到了影响收视率变化的因素: (如果,国际足联世界杯冠军 = “是”)+ 0.004×国际足联世界排名]。因此,这表明国际足联世界杯冠军抑制了这种变化,导致中国消费者的观看行为更加稳定。
提出了时间和球队敏感策略来帮助为2026年国际足联世界杯制定抑制不确定性的商业决策。最终,在更不稳定的2020年代,更广泛地直播国际足联世界杯对于促进和平将是非常宝贵的。