Monarrez Pedro M, Heim Noel A, Payne Jonathan L
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2023 Sep 27;10(9):230795. doi: 10.1098/rsos.230795. eCollection 2023 Sep.
Two of the traits most often observed to correlate with extinction risk in marine animals are geographical range and body size. However, the relative effects of these two traits on extinction risk have not been investigated systematically for either background times or during mass extinctions. To close this knowledge gap, we measure and compare extinction selectivity of geographical range and body size of genera within five classes of benthic marine animals across the Phanerozoic using capture-mark-recapture models. During background intervals, narrow geographical range is strongly associated with greater extinction probability, whereas smaller body size is more weakly associated with greater extinction probability. During mass extinctions, the association between geographical range and extinction probability is reduced in every class and fully eliminated in some, whereas the association between body size and extinction probability varies in strength and direction across classes. While geographical range is universally the stronger predictor of survival during background intervals, variation among classes during mass extinction suggests a fundamental shift in extinction processes during these global catastrophes.
在海洋动物中，最常被观察到与灭绝风险相关的两个特征是地理分布范围和体型大小。然而，对于这两个特征在背景时期或大规模灭绝期间对灭绝风险的相对影响，尚未进行系统的研究。为了填补这一知识空白，我们使用标记重捕模型，对显生宙期间五类底栖海洋动物的属的地理分布范围和体型大小的灭绝选择性进行了测量和比较。在背景时期，地理分布范围狭窄与更高的灭绝概率密切相关，而体型较小与更高的灭绝概率之间的关联则较弱。在大规模灭绝期间，地理分布范围与灭绝概率之间的关联在每个类别中都有所降低，在某些类别中则完全消除，而体型大小与灭绝概率之间的关联在不同类别中的强度和方向各不相同。虽然地理分布范围在背景时期普遍是生存的更强预测指标，但大规模灭绝期间不同类别之间的差异表明，在这些全球灾难期间，灭绝过程发生了根本性的转变。
