Hosen Md Zobraj
Police Headquarters, Bangladesh Police, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 18;9(9):e20061. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20061. eCollection 2023 Sep.
There are studies on crime trend changes during the pandemic lockdown, but very few on homicide and rape instances afterward. This study investigates how lockdown and post-lockdown pandemic situations affect homicide and rape cases in Bangladesh. Initially, the investigation checked the bidirectional Granger cause between COVID-19 and the trend of crimes (homicide and rape). The study found a unidirectional Granger cause of COVID-19 in crime trend changes. Further, the study used the ordinary least square (OLS) approach to a dynamic model to produce unbiased, consistent, and efficient conclusions for future policy implications. Compared to the crime rates during normal (pre-pandemic) times, this study found that homicides increased substantially (9.5%) during the lockdown and declined marginally (3.0%) afterward. The rate of rapes dropped considerably (34.3%) during the lockdown, but it rebounded significantly (13.9%) during the post-lockdown pandemic period. This study suggests further investigations of the causes of increased rape cases during the post-lockdown pandemic period in the country.
有关于疫情封锁期间犯罪趋势变化的研究，但关于之后的杀人及强奸案件的研究却很少。本研究调查了封锁及封锁后的疫情状况如何影响孟加拉国的杀人及强奸案件。最初，该调查检验了新冠疫情与犯罪趋势（杀人及强奸）之间的双向格兰杰因果关系。研究发现新冠疫情在犯罪趋势变化中存在单向格兰杰因果关系。此外，该研究使用普通最小二乘法（OLS）对动态模型进行分析，以便得出无偏、一致且有效的结论，为未来的政策制定提供参考。与正常（疫情前）时期的犯罪率相比，本研究发现杀人案件在封锁期间大幅增加（9.5%），之后略有下降（3.0%）。强奸案件发生率在封锁期间大幅下降（34.3%），但在封锁后的疫情期间显著反弹（13.9%）。本研究建议对该国封锁后疫情期间强奸案件增加的原因进行进一步调查。
