Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
PLoS One. 2023 Oct 10;18(10):e0292659. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292659. eCollection 2023.
Livestock production is under scrutiny for its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Animal disease outbreaks will have economic effects on producers and the indirect cost of an animal disease outbreak is the result of shifts in consumption across commodities. This shift in demand for meat products will also positively or negatively affect carbon emissions. We explore the indirect costs and subsequent carbon impact of four potential exotic disease outbreaks, namely African swine fever, sheep pox, bluetongue, and foot and mouth disease. The indirect costs are quantified under different severities of outbreak using a vector error correction model and by estimating the changes in revenues of livestock and feed markets. By associating subsequent consumption switches with emission factors, we quantify the hidden carbon impact of these livestock disease outbreaks. The indirect costs vary based on severity and type of disease outbreak. Similarly, the net reduction in supply and subsequent consumption impacts result in averting between 0.005 and 0.67 million tonnes of CO2 eq. for these sectors. A foot and mouth disease outbreak has the highest indirect costs and largest reduction in GHG emissions as it decreases the production of cattle as consumers switch to lower emitting meat commodities. Conversely, African swine fever has the smallest reduction in GHG emissions, reflecting the more industrialised nature of pig farming. Our modelling approach opens a provocative debate around how compensation to producers supports restocking and how this relates to commitments to net zero farming. Overall, an exotic disease outbreak may trigger an opportunity to switch to lower emitting breeds or species if a more holistic, joined up approach were taken by Government.
畜牧业生产因其对温室气体（GHG）排放的影响而受到审查。动物疾病爆发将对生产者产生经济影响，而动物疾病爆发的间接成本是商品消费转移的结果。对肉类产品需求的这种转变也将对碳排放产生积极或消极的影响。我们探讨了四种潜在外来疾病爆发（即非洲猪瘟、绵羊痘、蓝舌病和口蹄疫）的间接成本和随后的碳影响。通过使用向量误差修正模型和估计牲畜和饲料市场收入的变化，在不同爆发严重程度下量化间接成本。通过将随后的消费转变与排放因素相关联，我们量化了这些牲畜疾病爆发的隐藏碳影响。间接成本取决于疾病爆发的严重程度和类型。同样，供应减少和随后的消费影响导致这些部门的二氧化碳当量排放量减少了 0.005 至 0.67 百万吨。口蹄疫爆发的间接成本最高，温室气体排放减少最多，因为消费者转向排放较低的肉类商品，导致牛的产量减少。相比之下，非洲猪瘟对温室气体排放的减少最小，这反映了养猪业更工业化的性质。我们的建模方法引发了一场关于如何通过向生产者提供补偿来支持重新存栏以及这与实现净零农业承诺的关系的激烈辩论。总体而言，如果政府采取更全面、更协调的方法，外来疾病爆发可能会为转向排放较低的品种或物种提供机会。
