Ling Lin, Khan Hayat, Lingwei Jiang, Qiumei Li, Zuominyang Zhang, Khan Itbar
School of Business Administration, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning, China.
School of Economics and management, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Oct 13;18(10):e0292859. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292859. eCollection 2023.
Understanding the dynamic link between the development of COVID-19 pandemic and industry sector risk spillovers is crucial to explore the underlying mechanisms by which major public health events affect economic systems. This paper applies ElasticNet method proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012, 2014) to estimate the dynamic risk spillover indicators of 20 industrial sectors in China from 2016 to 2022, and systematically examines the impact of industry risk network fluctuations and the transmission path caused by COVID-19 shock. The findings reveal that risk spillovers of Chinese industries show a dynamic change of "decline-fluctuation-rebound" with the three phases of COVID-19 epidemic. At the beginning of the epidemic, machinery and equipment, paper and printing, tourism and hotels, media and information services, and agriculture were the exporters of epidemic risk, while materials, transportation equipment, commercial trade, health care, and environmental protection were the importers of epidemic risk; However, as the epidemic developed further, the direction and effect of risk transmission in the industry was reversed. Examining the network characteristics of the pair sectors, we found that under the epidemic shock, the positive risk spillover from tourism and hotels, culture, education and sports to consumer goods, finance, and energy industries was significantly increased, and finance and real estate industries were affected by the risk impact of more industries, while the number of industries affected by information technology and computer industry was significantly reduced. This paper shows that there is inter-industry risk transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic shock, and the risk transmission feeds back in a cycle between industries as the epidemic develops, driving the economy into a vicious circle. The role of the service sector in blocking the spread of negative shocks from the epidemic should be emphasized and brought into play to avoid increasing the overall economic vulnerability. This study will help to deepen the understanding of scholars and policy makers on the network transmission effects of the epidemic.
了解新冠疫情发展与行业部门风险溢出之间的动态联系，对于探究重大公共卫生事件影响经济系统的潜在机制至关重要。本文运用迪博尔德和伊尔马兹（2009年、2012年、2014年）提出的弹性网络方法，估算了2016年至2022年中国20个工业部门的动态风险溢出指标，并系统考察了行业风险网络波动以及新冠疫情冲击所造成的传导路径。研究结果显示，中国行业的风险溢出随着新冠疫情的三个阶段呈现出“下降—波动—反弹”的动态变化。疫情初期，机械设备、造纸印刷、旅游酒店、传媒信息服务和农业是疫情风险的输出方，而材料、运输设备、商业贸易、医疗保健和环境保护则是疫情风险的输入方；然而，随着疫情的进一步发展，行业内风险传导的方向和效果发生了逆转。通过考察两两行业的网络特征，我们发现，在疫情冲击下，旅游酒店、文化教育体育向消费品、金融和能源行业的正向风险溢出显著增加，金融和房地产行业受到更多行业的风险影响，而信息技术和计算机行业所影响的行业数量显著减少。本文表明，新冠疫情冲击存在行业间风险传导，且随着疫情发展，风险传导在行业间循环反馈，推动经济陷入恶性循环。应强调并发挥服务业在阻断疫情负面冲击传播方面的作用，以避免增加整体经济脆弱性。本研究将有助于加深学者和政策制定者对疫情网络传导效应的理解。
