Nijsse Femke J M M, Mercure Jean-Francois, Ameli Nadia, Larosa Francesca, Kothari Sumit, Rickman Jamie, Vercoulen Pim, Pollitt Hector
Global Systems Institute, Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Cambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Nat Commun. 2023 Oct 17;14(1):6542. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41971-7.
Decarbonisation plans across the globe require zero-carbon energy sources to be widely deployed by 2050 or 2060. Solar energy is the most widely available energy resource on Earth, and its economic attractiveness is improving fast in a cycle of increasing investments. Here we use data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting modelling to establish which zero carbon power sources could become dominant worldwide. We find that, due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies. Uncertainties arise, however, over grid stability in a renewables-dominated power system, the availability of sufficient finance in underdeveloped economies, the capacity of supply chains and political resistance from regions that lose employment. Policies resolving these barriers may be more effective than price instruments to accelerate the transition to clean energy.
全球脱碳计划要求到2050年或2060年广泛部署零碳能源。太阳能是地球上最广泛可用的能源资源，并且在投资不断增加的循环中，其经济吸引力正在迅速提高。在这里，我们使用数据驱动的条件技术和经济预测模型来确定哪些零碳电源可能在全球占据主导地位。我们发现，由于过去政策推动的技术轨迹，全球不可逆的太阳能转折点可能已经过去，在没有任何进一步气候政策的情况下，太阳能逐渐开始主导全球电力市场。然而，在以可再生能源为主的电力系统中，电网稳定性、欠发达经济体是否有足够资金、供应链能力以及就业岗位流失地区的政治阻力等方面存在不确定性。解决这些障碍的政策可能比价格手段更有效地加速向清洁能源的转型。
