Joshi Siddharth, Mittal Shivika, Holloway Paul, Shukla Priyadarshi Ramprasad, Ó Gallachóir Brian, Glynn James
SFI MaREI Centre for Energy Climate and Marine, Cork, Ireland.
Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 5;12(1):5738. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25720-2.
Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018. Yet, only limited information is available on its global potential and associated costs at a high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we present a high-resolution global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential using big data, machine learning and geospatial analysis. We analyse 130 million km of global land surface area to demarcate 0.2 million km of rooftop area, which together represent 27 PWh yr of electricity generation potential for costs between 40-280 $ MWh. Out of this, 10 PWh yr can be realised below 100 $ MWh. The global potential is predominantly spread between Asia (47%), North America (20%) and Europe (13%). The cost of attaining the potential is lowest in India (66 $ MWh) and China (68 $ MWh), with USA (238 $ MWh) and UK (251 $ MWh) representing some of the costliest countries.
目前,屋顶太阳能光伏发电占全球太阳能光伏装机容量的40%,占2018年可再生能源新增装机总量的四分之一。然而,关于其在高时空分辨率下的全球潜力和相关成本的信息却十分有限。在此,我们利用大数据、机器学习和地理空间分析方法,对屋顶太阳能光伏发电潜力进行了高分辨率的全球评估。我们分析了1.3亿平方千米的全球陆地表面积,划定了20万平方千米的屋顶面积,这些面积总计代表了27太瓦时/年的发电潜力,成本在40-280美元/兆瓦时之间。其中,10太瓦时/年可以在100美元/兆瓦时以下实现。全球潜力主要分布在亚洲(47%)、北美(20%)和欧洲(13%)。实现这一潜力成本最低的是印度(66美元/兆瓦时)和中国(68美元/兆瓦时),而美国(238美元/兆瓦时)和英国(251美元/兆瓦时)则是成本最高的一些国家。