Institute of New Development, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou, China.
Int J Equity Health. 2023 Oct 18;22(1):222. doi: 10.1186/s12939-023-02007-0.
The reasonable allocation of social care resources for the older adults is a key measure to actively respond to population aging. This study aims to evaluate the evolutionary trend, spatial differences and influencing factors of the social elderly care resources (SECR) allocation in China.
This study constructed a comprehensive index system consisting of three dimensions: material resources, human resources and financial resources, to measure the level of SECR in mainland China. The Kernel density estimation was used to reveal the dynamic evolution trend, and Dagum Gini Coefficient and its decomposition method were used to investigate the equity of SECR allocation. Spatial panel regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of the allocation of SECR.
The level of SECR is rising from 0.197 in 2013 to 0.208 in 2019. The middle-high- and high-level areas of SECR were mainly distributed in the eastern and western China. The Gini coefficient of SECR decreased from 0.262 in 2013 to 0.249 in 2019. Per capita GDP, the proportion of social welfare expenditure in GDP and the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP have significant positive effects on the allocation of SECR. Population aging and the development of service industry exhibit significant negative spatial spillover effects on the allocation of SECR.
The fairness of the allocation of SECR in China has been improved, while the spatial distribution is imbalanced. Economic development, fiscal input and the development of service industry have significant positive effects while population aging has significant negative effects on the SECR allocation.
合理配置老年社会福利资源是积极应对人口老龄化的关键措施。本研究旨在评估中国老年社会福利资源（SECR）分配的演变趋势、空间差异和影响因素。
本研究构建了一个由物质资源、人力资源和财政资源三个维度组成的综合指标体系，来衡量中国大陆的 SECR 水平。采用核密度估计法揭示其动态演变趋势，采用 Dagum Gini 系数及其分解方法研究 SECR 分配的公平性。采用空间面板回归模型分析 SECR 分配的影响因素。
SECR 水平从 2013 年的 0.197 上升到 2019 年的 0.208。中高和高 SECR 水平地区主要分布在中国东部和西部。SECR 的基尼系数从 2013 年的 0.262 下降到 2019 年的 0.249。人均国内生产总值、社会福利支出占 GDP 的比重和第三产业占 GDP 的比重对 SECR 的分配有显著的正向影响。人口老龄化和服务业的发展对 SECR 的分配表现出显著的负空间溢出效应。
中国 SECR 分配的公平性有所提高，但其空间分布仍不平衡。经济发展、财政投入和服务业发展对 SECR 分配有显著的正向影响，而人口老龄化对 SECR 分配有显著的负向影响。
