Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2023 Oct 5;11:1222424. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1222424. eCollection 2023.
This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of older adult service supply in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019. Additionally, this research seeks to propose an optimized resource allocation strategy for older adult care services, promoting regional fairness and coordinated development.
To evaluate the older adult service supply capacity, this research first constructed an evaluation index system based on the Chinese modernization development pattern. Then, an empirical analysis was carried out using a combination of the entropy-TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, Markov chain analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient, and panel regression model.
The results show an overall upward trend in the supply and service capacity of older adult care in the whole province. However, the spatial distribution of older adult service supply capacity in Zhejiang Province still exhibits a gradient effect, even in the most recent year of 2019. Furthermore, the supply capacity of older adult services shifted to a higher level in the whole province, and regions with high supply capacity had a positive spillover effect on adjacent regions. The overall difference in the older adult service supply capacity of the province showed a decreasing trend. The level of economic development, urbanization rate, transportation capacity, the level of opening up, and the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry had a significant impact on the supply capacity and spatial difference of older adult services.
From the findings, this study puts forth countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the spatial distribution of older adult care services. This includes giving full play to the regional spatial linkage effect, promoting new-type urbanization construction, upgrading the transportation network, and expanding the opening up of the industrial structure. By implementing these measures, a more equitable and coordinated older adult services system can be developed in Zhejiang Province.
本研究旨在分析 2010 年至 2019 年期间浙江省老年服务供给的空间分布和动态演变。此外，本研究旨在提出优化老年护理服务资源配置的策略，促进区域公平和协调发展。
为了评估老年服务供给能力，本研究首先构建了一个基于中国现代化发展模式的评价指标体系。然后，采用熵-TOPSIS 法、核密度估计、马尔可夫链分析、达格姆基尼系数和面板回归模型相结合的方法进行实证分析。
结果表明，全省老年护理服务供给和服务能力总体呈上升趋势。然而，浙江省老年服务供给能力的空间分布仍存在梯度效应，甚至在 2019 年这一年也是如此。此外，全省老年服务供给能力向更高水平转移，高供给能力地区对相邻地区具有积极的溢出效应。全省老年服务供给能力的总体差异呈下降趋势。经济发展水平、城市化率、交通能力、开放水平以及第三产业从业人员比例对老年服务的供给能力和空间差异有显著影响。
本研究提出了优化老年护理服务空间分布的对策和建议。这包括充分发挥区域空间联动效应，促进新型城镇化建设，升级交通网络，扩大产业结构开放度。通过实施这些措施，可以在浙江省建立一个更加公平和协调的老年服务体系。
