Haines M R
Demography. 1979 May;16(2):289-312.
This paper seeks to extend our knowledge about mortality in the late nineteenth century United States by using census mortality data for older children and teenagers to fit model tables. The same method can also be used with partially underregistered death data. The most commonly used model tables, the Coale and Demeny West Model, apparently do not adequately depict the changing shape of mortality over the period 1850--1910. An alternative model life table system is presented, based on the Brass two parameter logit system and available reliable life tables from the period 1850--1910. The two parameter system must be reduced to a one parameter system by means of estimated relationships between the parameters so that the fitting procedure can be used. The resulting model system is, however, heavily dependent on the experience of northern, industrial states, especially Massachusetts.
本文旨在通过使用老年儿童和青少年的人口普查死亡率数据来拟合模型表,以扩展我们对19世纪末美国死亡率的认识。同样的方法也可用于部分登记不全的死亡数据。最常用的模型表,即科尔和德梅尼西方模型,显然没有充分描绘出1850年至1910年期间死亡率变化的形态。本文提出了一种替代的模型生命表系统,该系统基于布拉斯双参数logit系统以及1850年至1910年期间可用的可靠生命表。必须通过参数之间的估计关系将双参数系统简化为单参数系统,以便能够使用拟合程序。然而,由此产生的模型系统严重依赖于北方工业州,尤其是马萨诸塞州的经验。