Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy .
Med Lav. 2023 Oct 24;114(5):e2023050. doi: 10.23749/mdl.v114i5.15275.
Italy experienced a sustained excess in total mortality between March 2020 and December 2022, resulting in approximately 226,000 excess deaths. This study extends the estimate of excess mortality in the country until June 2023, evaluating the persistence of excess mortality.
We used mortality and population data from 2011 to 2019 to establish a baseline for expected deaths during the pandemic. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were employed, stratified by sex, to predict expected deaths. These models included calendar year, age group, and a smoothed function for the day of the year as predictors. Excess mortality was then calculated for all ages and working ages (25-64 years).
From January to June 2023, we found a reduction in the number of deaths compared to the expected ones: 6,933 fewer deaths across all age groups and 1,768 fewer deaths in the working age category. This corresponds to a 2.1% and 5.2% decrease in mortality, respectively.
The excess mortality observed in Italy from March to December 2022 was no longer observed in the first six months of 2023.
意大利在 2020 年 3 月至 2022 年 12 月期间经历了持续的总死亡率超额，导致约 22.6 万人超额死亡。本研究将意大利的超额死亡率估计延长至 2023 年 6 月，评估超额死亡率的持续情况。
我们使用 2011 年至 2019 年的死亡率和人口数据，为大流行期间的预期死亡建立基线。使用按性别分层的过离散泊松回归模型来预测预期死亡。这些模型包括日历年份、年龄组以及一年中日期的平滑函数作为预测因子。然后计算所有年龄组和工作年龄组（25-64 岁）的超额死亡率。
从 2023 年 1 月至 6 月，与预期相比，死亡人数有所减少：所有年龄组减少了 6933 人，工作年龄组减少了 1768 人。这分别对应于死亡率下降 2.1%和 5.2%。
意大利在 2022 年 3 月至 12 月期间观察到的超额死亡率在 2023 年上半年不再存在。
