Pelton Stephen I, Mould-Quevedo Joaquin F, Nguyen Van Hung
Chobanian and Avedesian School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, MA 02118, USA.
Seqirus USA Inc., Summit, NJ 07901, USA.
Vaccines (Basel). 2023 Sep 26;11(10):1525. doi: 10.3390/vaccines11101525.
Influenza can exacerbate underlying medical conditions. In this study, we modelled the potential impact of an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) or adjuvanted QIV (aQIV) on hospitalizations and mortality from influenza-related cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory, and other complications in adults ≥65 years of age in the US with underlying chronic conditions. We used a stochastic decision-tree model, with 1000 simulations varying input across predicted ranges. Due to the variable nature of influenza across seasons and differences in published estimates for input parameters, data are presented as 95% confidence intervals. Compared with no vaccination, use of aQIV would prevent 135,450-564,360 hospitalizations and 1612-29,226 deaths across outcomes evaluated. Overall, aQIV prevented 1071-18,388 more hospitalizations and 85-1944 more deaths than QIVe. By routine seasonal vaccination against influenza, a substantial number of severe influenza-associated complications and deaths, caused by direct influenza symptoms or by exacerbation of chronic conditions, can be prevented in high-risk adults ≥65 years of age in the US.
流感会加重潜在的基础疾病。在本研究中，我们模拟了基于鸡蛋的四价流感疫苗（QIVe）或佐剂四价流感疫苗（aQIV）对美国65岁及以上患有基础慢性病的成年人因流感相关心血管疾病（CVD）、呼吸系统疾病及其他并发症导致的住院和死亡的潜在影响。我们使用了一个随机决策树模型，进行1000次模拟，在预测范围内改变输入参数。由于流感在不同季节的变化特性以及已发表的输入参数估计值存在差异，数据以95%置信区间呈现。与未接种疫苗相比，使用aQIV在评估的所有结局中可预防135,450 - 564,360例住院和1612 - 29,226例死亡。总体而言，aQIV比QIVe多预防1071 - 18,388例住院和85 - 1944例死亡。通过对流感进行常规季节性疫苗接种，在美国65岁及以上的高危成年人中，可以预防大量由直接流感症状或基础疾病加重引起的严重流感相关并发症和死亡。
