Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA), South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2024 Feb;25(2):252-258.e8. doi: 10.1016/j.jamda.2023.09.014. Epub 2023 Oct 25.
To examine the historical trends and predict the future rates and total volumes of permanent residential aged care (PRAC) service utilization in Australia.
A population-based repeated cross-sectional and projection study of non-indigenous older people (≥65 years) accessing PRAC in Australia was conducted.
Publicly available aged care admissions from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and population estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics were used.
Historical incidence rates (per 1000 people), incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs of PRAC admission from 2008-2009 to 2020-2021 were estimated using negative binomial regression models. The future incidence and prediction intervals (PIs) of PRAC admission between 2021-2022 and 2051-2052 were projected using a generalized additive model-negative binomial regression. All estimates were adjusted or standardized by sex and age.
Between 2008-2009 and 2020-2021, the adjusted admission to PRAC decreased (from 23.6/1000 people to 15.7/1000 people with an IRR = 0.97/year, 95% CI 0.97-0.98). The projected PRAC admission rate will decrease to 12.1/1000 (95%PI 10.8-13.3) by 2037-2038 and 9.0/1000 (95%PI 7.6-10.4) by 2051-2052. The projected volume of PRAC admission will be 73,988 (95%PI 65,960-81,425) at its highest point in 2037-2038 and 64,579 (95%PI 54,258-74,543) in 2051-2052.
The utilization of PRAC has decreased in the past decade, and a predicted decrease in PRAC use in future years is estimated. However, the volume of PRAC utilization will still increase for the next 15 years (until 2037-2038) due to our increasingly older population. These findings can inform service planning of PRAC access in Australia.
研究澳大利亚永久性居住养老院（PRAC）服务利用的历史趋势，并预测未来的利用率和总利用量。
对澳大利亚接受 PRAC 的非土著老年人（≥65 岁）进行了基于人群的重复横断面和预测研究。
使用了澳大利亚健康与福利研究所的公共养老院入院数据和澳大利亚统计局的人口估计数据。
使用负二项回归模型估计了 2008-2009 年至 2020-2021 年 PRAC 入院的历史发病率（每 1000 人）、发病率比（IRR）和 95%置信区间（CI）。使用广义加性模型-负二项回归模型预测了 2021-2022 年至 2051-2052 年 PRAC 入院的未来发病率和预测区间（PI）。所有估计值均按性别和年龄进行了调整或标准化。
在 2008-2009 年至 2020-2021 年期间，PRAC 的调整入院率下降（从每 1000 人 23.6 人降至每 1000 人 15.7 人，IRR=0.97/年，95%CI0.97-0.98）。预计到 2037-2038 年，PRAC 入院率将降至 12.1/1000（95%PI 10.8-13.3），到 2051-2052 年降至 9.0/1000（95%PI 7.6-10.4）。PRAC 入院人数预计将在 2037-2038 年达到最高值 73988（95%PI 65960-81425），在 2051-2052 年降至 64579（95%PI 54258-74543）。
过去十年中，PRAC 的利用率有所下降，预计未来几年 PRAC 的利用率将会下降。然而，由于我们的人口年龄越来越大，PRAC 的利用率在未来 15 年内仍将增加（直到 2037-2038 年）。这些发现可以为澳大利亚 PRAC 入院服务规划提供信息。
