Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT), Programa de Pós-Graduação em Enfermagem, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil.
Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT), Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Coletiva, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil.
J Pediatr (Rio J). 2024 Mar-Apr;100(2):196-203. doi: 10.1016/j.jped.2023.10.004. Epub 2023 Nov 10.
To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents.
An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following Prais-Winsten's regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters.
Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15-19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, p-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region.
The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.
分析儿童和青少年确诊 COVID-19 病例的发病率趋势和时空分布聚集情况。
对巴西中西部马托格罗索州年龄在 0 至 19 岁的居民在 2020 年至 2022 年期间信息系统中确诊的 COVID-19 病例进行了一项生态学研究。使用 Prais-Winsten 回归对每 10 万居民的月发病率进行趋势分析。对每 10 万居民的贝叶斯发病率进行时空分布，并进行时空扫描以识别高风险聚集区。
在所研究的 79592 例 COVID-19 病例中，51.6%为女性，44.21%为 15-19 岁人群。平均每月发病率为每 10 万居民 265.87 例，在分析期间呈稳定趋势（每月百分比变化 [MPV]）= 12.15；CI：-0.73；26.70）。COVID-19 发病率在女性（每 10 万居民 283.14 例）和 15-19 岁年龄组（每 10 万居民 485.90 例）中较高。在 10-14 岁年龄组中，观察到发病率呈上升趋势，每月时间变化较大，为 14.42%（CI：1.28；29.28）。主要聚集区也是相对风险最高的聚集区（RR=5.16，p 值=0.001），包括北部卫生大区的 19 个市。
研究结果表明，研究人群的发病率呈每月稳定趋势，10-14 岁年龄组发病率增加，该州北部卫生大区为疾病高发区。
