Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Samara University, Samara, Ethiopia.
Department of Economics, University of Gondar, College of Business and Economics, Gondar, Ethiopia.
PLoS One. 2023 Nov 16;18(11):e0294454. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294454. eCollection 2023.
The relationship between inflation, income inequality, and economic growth is a subject of intense debate among economic researchers and policymakers. This study aims to analyze this relationship in Ethiopia using advanced statistical techniques such as VEC (vector error correction) model with Granger causality, and Johansen's cointegrated. The study covers the period from 1980 to 2022 and includes pre and post-estimation diagnosis tests to ensure the accuracy of the model. The results indicate the presence of a long-run relationship among inflation, income inequality, and economic growth, as confirmed by Johansen's cointegrated test. Additionally, the vector error correction model shows a strong long-run relationship between economic growth, income inequality, and inflation. In the short run, there is a significant association between income inequality and economic growth, as well as between inflation and economic growth. The Granger causality test reveals a bidirectional causality between economic growth and income inequality and between economic growth and inflation. However, there is a unidirectional causality from inflation to income inequality. Based on these findings, it is suggested that the government should implement various strategies and policies, including redistribution policies, social safety nets, promoting inclusive economic growth, coordinating effective monetary and fiscal policies, implementing progressive taxation, and reforming the labor market.
通货膨胀、收入不平等与经济增长之间的关系是经济研究人员和政策制定者激烈争论的主题。本研究旨在使用向量误差修正 (VEC) 模型与格兰杰因果关系和 Johansen 协整等先进统计技术，分析埃塞俄比亚的这种关系。该研究涵盖了 1980 年至 2022 年的时期，并进行了预估计和后估计诊断测试，以确保模型的准确性。结果表明，通货膨胀、收入不平等与经济增长之间存在长期关系，这一点得到了 Johansen 协整检验的证实。此外，向量误差修正模型显示经济增长、收入不平等与通货膨胀之间存在较强的长期关系。在短期内，收入不平等与经济增长以及通货膨胀与经济增长之间存在显著关联。格兰杰因果检验揭示了经济增长与收入不平等之间以及经济增长与通货膨胀之间存在双向因果关系。然而，通货膨胀与收入不平等之间存在单向因果关系。基于这些发现，建议政府实施各种战略和政策，包括再分配政策、社会安全网、促进包容性经济增长、协调有效的货币和财政政策、实施累进税以及改革劳动力市场。
