Suppr超能文献

MSGene:利用遗传风险和电子健康记录推导并验证冠心病终生风险的多状态模型

MSGene: Derivation and validation of a multistate model for lifetime risk of coronary artery disease using genetic risk and the electronic health record.

作者信息

Urbut Sarah M, Yeung Ming Wai, Khurshid Shaan, Cho So Mi Jemma, Schuermans Art, German Jakob, Taraszka Kodi, Fahed Akl C, Ellinor Patrick, Trinquart Ludovic, Parmigiani Giovanni, Gusev Alexander, Natarajan Pradeep

机构信息

Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.

Program in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA.

出版信息

medRxiv. 2023 Nov 8:2023.11.08.23298229. doi: 10.1101/2023.11.08.23298229.

Abstract

Currently, coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. We designed a novel and general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. MSGene supports decision making about CAD prevention related to any of these states. We analyzed longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improved discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), with external validation. We also used MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore the potential public health value of our novel multistate model for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics.

摘要

目前,冠状动脉疾病(CAD)是全球成年人死亡的主要原因。准确的风险分层有助于实现最佳的终生预防。我们设计了一种新颖的通用多状态模型(MSGene),以估计跨越10种心脏代谢状态的特定年龄转变,该转变取决于临床协变量和CAD多基因风险评分。MSGene支持与这些状态中的任何一种相关的CAD预防决策。我们分析了来自480,638名英国生物银行参与者的纵向数据,并将预测的终生风险与30年弗雷明汉风险评分进行了比较。经外部验证,MSGene在辨别能力(C指数为0.71对0.66)、高危检测年龄(C指数为0.73对0.52)和总体预测(均方根误差为1.1%对10.9%)方面均有改善。我们还使用MSGene来完善对他汀类药物起始治疗后终生绝对风险降低的估计。我们的研究结果强调了我们新颖的多状态模型在利用临床因素和日益可用的遗传学进行准确的终生CAD风险估计方面的潜在公共卫生价值。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/30fd/10659503/66764cf59f4c/nihpp-2023.11.08.23298229v1-f0001.jpg

相似文献

3
Meta-Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Risk.
Res Sq. 2023 Dec 20:rs.3.rs-3694374. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3694374/v1.
4
Predictive Utility of a Coronary Artery Disease Polygenic Risk Score in Primary Prevention.
JAMA Cardiol. 2023 Feb 1;8(2):130-137. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2022.4466.
7
Genetic Risk Stratification: A Paradigm Shift in Prevention of Coronary Artery Disease.
JACC Basic Transl Sci. 2021 Mar 22;6(3):287-304. doi: 10.1016/j.jacbts.2020.09.004. eCollection 2021 Mar.
8
Contribution of Lipoprotein(a) to Polygenic Risk Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease: A Prospective UK Biobank Analysis.
Circ Genom Precis Med. 2023 Oct;16(5):470-477. doi: 10.1161/CIRCGEN.123.004137. Epub 2023 Sep 27.
9
Risk stratification of non-obstructive coronary artery disease for guidance of preventive medical therapy.
Atherosclerosis. 2019 Nov;290:66-73. doi: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2019.09.018. Epub 2019 Sep 26.
10

本文引用的文献

1
Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.
Circulation. 2023 Feb 21;147(8):e93-e621. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0000000000001123. Epub 2023 Jan 25.
3
The Utility of Multistate Models: A Flexible Framework for Time-to-Event Data.
Curr Epidemiol Rep. 2022;9(3):183-189. doi: 10.1007/s40471-022-00291-y. Epub 2022 Jun 29.
5
Polygenic Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.
Circulation. 2022 Aug 23;146(8):e93-e118. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0000000000001077. Epub 2022 Jul 18.
6
Time to Revisit Using 10-Year Risk to Guide Statin Therapy.
JAMA Cardiol. 2022 Aug 1;7(8):785-786. doi: 10.1001/jamacardio.2022.1883.
7
ukbpheno v1.0: An R package for phenotyping health-related outcomes in the UK Biobank.
STAR Protoc. 2022 Jun 17;3(3):101471. doi: 10.1016/j.xpro.2022.101471. eCollection 2022 Sep 16.
8
Validation of the 30-Year Framingham Risk Score in a German Population-Based Cohort.
Diagnostics (Basel). 2022 Apr 12;12(4):965. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics12040965.
9
Compounding Benefits of Cholesterol-Lowering Therapy for the Reduction of Major Cardiovascular Events: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes. 2022 Jun;15(6):e008552. doi: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.121.008552. Epub 2022 Apr 18.
10
A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data.
Lancet Healthy Longev. 2022 Feb;3(2):e89-e97. doi: 10.1016/s2666-7568(21)00308-1. Epub 2022 Feb 7.

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验